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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| stupid22 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | CORGII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 95% (306–15, n=321) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 62% (393–245, n=638) |
| Consensus PnL | -$106K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $4.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #268 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #68 |
| Sides with the consensus | 94% (31 of 33 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −7 pts, n=87 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 96% of 373 at avg 95¢, ROI −1% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 9% (won 92% of 36) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 56% (won 99% of 223) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 75% of 4) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 33% (won 100% of 133) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 97% (won 97% of 363) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 2% (won 100% of 7) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | stupid22 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | CORGII |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $9.9K | — | Yes $1.1K | — |