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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| themain | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (32–17, n=49) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | -$244K | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #590 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 55% (34 of 62 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 74% of 39 at avg 60¢, ROI −52% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 100% of 3) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 21% (won 75% of 8) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 33% (won 62% of 13) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 80% of 15) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | themain | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $228 | Magic $51K |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | — | Magic $161 | Magic $13K |