Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $87 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$86.58

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 0.1¢

-94% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$85.64

Total Shares57,096

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

187 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$413.43	$57.09	-$356.35	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$459.94	$8.97	-$451.1	47% 85-95 (180)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$209.6	$6.99	-$204.91	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$7.45	$3.91	-$56.07	37% 176-294 (470)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$2.9	$2.9	-$146.84	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$0	$2.82	+$2.82	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$7.74	$1.53	-$28.49	53% 906-789 (1695)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$188.09	$1.24	-$92.43	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$0	$0.12	+$0.12	41% 648-925 (1573)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$3.78	$0.07	-$3.71	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$413.43

Value

$57.09

PnL

-$356.35

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$459.94

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$451.1

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$209.6

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$204.91

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.45

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$56.07

Record

37%

176-294 (470)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$146.84

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$2.82

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.74

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$28.49

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$188.09

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$92.43

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.78

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.71

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

187 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.