Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

-$824.01

Smart Money Entry

28.1¢ → 20.5¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares16,431

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,419

Combined PnL+$409.3

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

679h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

213 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$200.87	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.6¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$169.87
└ No leg	Noavg 82.2¢	$591.52	$572.4	-$30.99
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$561.29	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
Gohst	Noavg 60.2¢	$755.34	$998.07	+$242.72	49% 738-770 (1508)
crypto-basenjiCTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$1.0K	$922.04	-$85.88	37% 176-294 (470)
Warren-Buffett	Noavg 77¢	$770	$795	+$25	65% 862-465 (1327)
88 881112	Noavg 59.3¢	$539.95	$719.36	+$179.32	38% 567-944 (1511)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 35.8¢	$1.2K	$668.79	-$499.96	47% 85-95 (180)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 84¢	$514.98	$487.4	-$27.59	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
BR browne	Noavg 77¢	$269.5	$278.25	+$8.75	71% 173-70 (243)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$342.76	$192.63	-$150.12	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 17.2¢	$138.82	$164.3	+$25.48	56% 973-770 (1743)
LI lissartter	Noavg 86¢	$171.87	$156.6	-$15.27	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$101.87	$138.02	+$36.15	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
TheKinginYellow<$100	Noavg 83¢	$86.14	$82.51	-$3.63	68% 830-398 (1228)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$18.2	$20.5	+$2.3	38% 20-32 (52)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,014.43

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$200.87

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$1,337.2222.6¢-$169.87

No$591.5282.2¢-$30.99

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,857.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$561.29

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

Gohst

Invested

$755.34

Value

$998.07

PnL

+$242.72

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

crypto-basenjiCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,007.92

Value

$922.04

PnL

-$85.88

Record

37%

176-294 (470)

Warren-Buffett

Invested

$770

Value

$795

PnL

+$25

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

881112

Invested

$539.95

Value

$719.36

PnL

+$179.32

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,168.58

Value

$668.79

PnL

-$499.96

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$514.98

Value

$487.4

PnL

-$27.59

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

browne

Invested

$269.5

Value

$278.25

PnL

+$8.75

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.76

Value

$192.63

PnL

-$150.12

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.82

Value

$164.3

PnL

+$25.48

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

lissartter

Invested

$171.87

Value

$156.6

PnL

-$15.27

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.87

Value

$138.02

PnL

+$36.15

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

TheKinginYellow<$100

Invested

$86.14

Value

$82.51

PnL

-$3.63

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.2

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$2.3

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

679h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

213 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.