Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 92¢ · $20K held · ends Dec 31

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 91.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 92%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares20,519

Combined PnL-$561.9

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares18,506

Combined PnL-$539.87

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thoodr	Yesavg 89¢	$15.6K	$15.8K	-$614.49	96% 631-24 (655)
DE dedidancCTR	Noavg 9.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$144.43	57% 103-77 (180)
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 93¢	$902.33	$873.23	-$14.55	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
Xeny	Yesavg 87.3¢	$654.99	$674.99	+$31.25	60% 978-662 (1640)
XC xcaiox	Yesavg 87¢	$591.6	$639	+$32.25	77% 200-61 (261)
BigMackyGCTR	Noavg 15.9¢	$778.68	$488.59	-$363.37	20% 108-423 (531)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 88.8¢	$365.99	$359.99	-$6	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Noavg 10.7¢	$171.27	$143.75	-$27.52	50% 415-417 (832)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 86.3¢	$91.61	$98.61	+$7	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
BE berlinskies<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$11.99	$14.01	+$2.26	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Noavg 15.5¢	$8.54	$3.99	-$4.54	50% 357-357 (714)
HI hithitfar<$100	Yesavg 80.8¢	$3.25	$3.63	+$0.38	58% 640-469 (1109)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$15,628.49

Value

$15.8K

PnL

-$614.49

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

dedidancCTR

Invested

$1,358.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$144.43

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$902.33

Value

$873.23

PnL

-$14.55

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

Xeny

Yes

Invested

$654.99

Value

$674.99

PnL

+$31.25

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

xcaiox

Yes

Invested

$591.6

Value

$639

PnL

+$32.25

Record

77%

200-61 (261)

BigMackyGCTR

Invested

$778.68

Value

$488.59

PnL

-$363.37

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$365.99

Value

$359.99

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Invested

$171.27

Value

$143.75

PnL

-$27.52

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.61

Value

$98.61

PnL

+$7

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

berlinskies<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.99

Value

$14.01

PnL

+$2.26

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$4.54

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

hithitfar<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.63

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

640-469 (1109)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 92%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

705h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.