Consensus PnL -$46K · win rate 63% (192–111, n=303) · was PM monthly #973 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-45.9K
Record
192W / 111L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 303 settled
Batting Avg
56.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1041
Source
PM monthly #973
Record (90 d)
93/162 · 57%
Trades
376
Markets
430
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 14 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $12K · now 81¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $7.1K · now 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No $5.3K · now 67¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (60% of 40)
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?No $1.9K · now 12¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No $1.5K · now 74¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (55% of 21)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $838 · now 92¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (90% of 20)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $580 · now 6¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $477 · now 15¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
325 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 59¢- Geopolitics
+12 pts
side won 63% of 48 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +1%
- Finance
+10 pts
side won 71% of 35 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 76% of 122 at an average 77¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 17% of 77)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 25% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 66% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 91% of 142)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.