Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ignacio Buse, while the market favors Zizou Bergs (76%). 8 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou Bergs

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Ignacio Buse (50%) · Ignacio Buse at 25¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 9

Ignacio Buse25¢Zizou Bergs75¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ignacio Buse

Consensus Traders

Ignacio Buse 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

-$273.74

Smart Money Entry

28.2¢ → 24.5¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidIgnacio Buse at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ignacio Buse

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Zizou Bergs 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ignacio Buse25%

Zizou Bergs76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ignacio Buse8 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares49,406

Combined PnL-$326.45

Zizou Bergs8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,399

Combined PnL+$52.71

Ignacio Buse — 50%Zizou Bergs — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Ignacio Buse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Zizou Bergs) and the top 1000 (10 on Ignacio Buse) disagree here.

whaleIgnacio Buse 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpIgnacio Buse 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrIgnacio Buse 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedZizou Bergs 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Ignacio Buse 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Ignacio Buseavg 28¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$81.48	50% 4084-4020 (8104)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Ignacio Buseavg 28.5¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$132.3	46% 390-453 (843)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Ignacio Buseavg 27.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$8.41	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Ignacio Buseavg 28¢	$1,000	$964.28	-$17.86	49% 3953-4141 (8094)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Ignacio Buseavg 28¢	$1,000	$964.28	-$17.86	51% 3961-3861 (7822)
K5 k56CTR	Ignacio Buseavg 29.4¢	$750	$688.66	-$48.59	57% 890-659 (1549)
DV dv-pmCTR	Ignacio Buseavg 28¢	$632.24	$620.95	-$11.29	50% 2924-2885 (5809)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Ignacio Buseavg 27.9¢	$607.42	$598.76	-$8.66	61% 13840-8746 (22586)
PL pltrkr111	Zizou Bergsavg 71.6¢	$543.04	$550.11	+$7.07	54% 745-625 (1370)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Zizou Bergsavg 74¢	$444	$447	+$3	52% 5698-5265 (10963)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Zizou Bergsavg 72.5¢	$441.25	$439.02	-$2.22	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
└ Zizou Bergs leg	Zizou Bergsavg 72.5¢	$290.75	$298.77	+$8.03
└ Ignacio Buse leg	Ignacio Buseavg 27.4¢	$150.5	$140.25	-$10.25
DA darkumbreon88	Zizou Bergsavg 71¢	$223.91	$227.07	+$1.58	65% 1808-987 (2795)
1L 1lovejump	Zizou Bergsavg 74.9¢	$197.08	$190.73	-$6.35	53% 676-604 (1280)
0xheavy888	Zizou Bergsavg 70.5¢	$138.18	$142.1	+$3.92	56% 7456-5978 (13434)
FL Flaznorp	Zizou Bergsavg 75.2¢	$131.55	$132.08	+$0.53	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Zizou Bergsavg 72¢	$77.28	$78.48	+$1.2	54% 5902-4952 (10854)
VeryLucky888	Zizou Bergsavg 71¢	$2.8K	$0.95	+$41.76	58% 43592-31705 (75297)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$4,563.15

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$81.48

Record

50%

4084-4020 (8104)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$3,855.97

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$132.3

Record

46%

390-453 (843)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$1,504.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$8.41

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

NotradecopyCTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$1,000

Value

$964.28

PnL

-$17.86

Record

49%

3953-4141 (8094)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$1,000

Value

$964.28

PnL

-$17.86

Record

51%

3961-3861 (7822)

k56CTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$750

Value

$688.66

PnL

-$48.59

Record

57%

890-659 (1549)

dv-pmCTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$632.24

Value

$620.95

PnL

-$11.29

Record

50%

2924-2885 (5809)

LilybaeumCTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$607.42

Value

$598.76

PnL

-$8.66

Record

61%

13840-8746 (22586)

pltrkr111

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$543.04

Value

$550.11

PnL

+$7.07

Record

54%

745-625 (1370)

CandleHammerDrums

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$444

Value

$447

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

5698-5265 (10963)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$441.25

Value

$439.02

PnL

-$2.22

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

Both legs:

Zizou Bergs$290.7572.5¢+$8.03

Ignacio Buse$150.527.4¢-$10.25

darkumbreon88

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$223.91

Value

$227.07

PnL

+$1.58

Record

65%

1808-987 (2795)

1lovejump

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$197.08

Value

$190.73

PnL

-$6.35

Record

53%

676-604 (1280)

0xheavy888

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$138.18

Value

$142.1

PnL

+$3.92

Record

56%

7456-5978 (13434)

Flaznorp

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$131.55

Value

$132.08

PnL

+$0.53

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

Eulhunter<$100

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$77.28

Value

$78.48

PnL

+$1.2

Record

54%

5902-4952 (10854)

VeryLucky888

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$2,786.54

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$41.76

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

Research grade

AvoidIgnacio Buse at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ignacio Buse

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Zizou Bergs 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Ignacio Buse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Zizou Bergs) and the top 1000 (10 on Ignacio Buse) disagree here.

whaleIgnacio Buse 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpIgnacio Buse 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrIgnacio Buse 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedZizou Bergs 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Ignacio Buse 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ignacio Buse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.