Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Rafael Jodar (81%) · Rafael Jodar at 79¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 9

Alejandro Tabilo22¢Rafael Jodar78¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Rafael Jodar

Consensus Traders

Rafael Jodar 81%

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$129.56

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 78.5¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateRafael Jodar at 79%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rafael Jodar

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alejandro Tabilo22%

Rafael Jodar79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rafael Jodar13 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares14,037

Combined PnL+$63.77

Alejandro Tabilo3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares13,503

Combined PnL+$65.79

Rafael Jodar — 81%Alejandro Tabilo — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on Rafael Jodar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRafael Jodar 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$15	67% 107-53 (160)
K5 k56	Rafael Jodaravg 78.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$24.98	57% 890-659 (1549)
PL pltrkr111	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$12.66	54% 745-625 (1370)
DV dv-pm	Rafael Jodaravg 77¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$33.72	50% 2924-2885 (5809)
FA fastball67CTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 21¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$40.66	50% 123-125 (248)
FL Flaznorp	Rafael Jodaravg 77.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$17.54	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 21¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$26	50% 4084-4020 (8104)
SE sentrio	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$629.19	$625.21	-$3.98	50% 24998-24716 (49714)
VeryLucky888	Rafael Jodaravg 76.2¢	$503.34	$525.06	+$21.71	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
OM omnibus-076daa	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$167.33	$166.27	-$1.06	50% 19812-20152 (39964)
38 38791873984189	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$158	$157	-$1	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
0xheavy888<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$58.46	$58.09	-$0.37	56% 7456-5978 (13434)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$39.5	$39.25	-$0.25	54% 5902-4952 (10854)
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 21¢	$36.22	$36.22	-$0.86	15% 892-4893 (5785)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 77.5¢	$15.5	$15.7	+$0.2	52% 7635-6911 (14546)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Rafael Jodaravg 79¢	$9.91	$9.84	-$0.06	53% 8070-7281 (15351)

0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2,370

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$15

Record

67%

107-53 (160)

k56

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$24.98

Record

57%

890-659 (1549)

pltrkr111

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$12.66

Record

54%

745-625 (1370)

dv-pm

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1,730.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$33.72

Record

50%

2924-2885 (5809)

fastball67CTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$1,707.72

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$40.66

Record

50%

123-125 (248)

Flaznorp

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$1,302.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$17.54

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$1,091.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$26

Record

50%

4084-4020 (8104)

sentrio

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$629.19

Value

$625.21

PnL

-$3.98

Record

50%

24998-24716 (49714)

VeryLucky888

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$503.34

Value

$525.06

PnL

+$21.71

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

omnibus-076daa

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$167.33

Value

$166.27

PnL

-$1.06

Record

50%

19812-20152 (39964)

38791873984189

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$158

Value

$157

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

0xheavy888<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$58.46

Value

$58.09

PnL

-$0.37

Record

56%

7456-5978 (13434)

Eulhunter<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$39.5

Value

$39.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

5902-4952 (10854)

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$36.22

Value

$36.22

PnL

-$0.86

Record

15%

892-4893 (5785)

ameisgoat11<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

7635-6911 (14546)

iWasEnough<$100

Rafael Jodar

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

8070-7281 (15351)

Research grade

Research candidateRafael Jodar at 79%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rafael Jodar

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on Rafael Jodar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRafael Jodar 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrRafael Jodar 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedRafael Jodar 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Rafael Jodar 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rafael Jodar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.