Consensus PnL $131K · win rate 87% (138–20, n=158) · hand-picked wallet · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$130.6K
Record
138W / 20L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 158 settled
Batting Avg
68.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#298
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,621
Markets
233
Volume
$5.9M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 17 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $19K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $18K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes $15K · now 94¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (72% of 25)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Yes $12K · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (63% of 16)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $7.8K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 21)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.9K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $5.7K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $5.3K · now 81¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (50% of 42)
Specialties
196 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 85¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 92% of 64 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 94% of 31 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 0% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 0% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 92% of 13)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 96% of 169)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.