Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 86¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 4

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$31.7K

Combined PnL

-$548.48

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 86¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 86%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$30.5K

Total Shares35,468

Combined PnL-$263.41

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares8,752

Combined PnL-$285.07

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scottilicious	Yesavg 89¢	$13.0K	$12.4K	-$437.34	82% 945-201 (1146)
DZ dzsibenaja	Yesavg 86.9¢	$11.9K	$11.6K	-$128.43	88% 171-24 (195)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 85.1¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$94.08	38% 20-32 (52)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 12¢	$1.4K	$997.22	-$267.34	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 47.3¢	$214.58	$393.8	+$179.22	71% 318-130 (448)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 84.9¢	$208.38	$208.52	+$2.59	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 75¢	$179.06	$202.94	+$26.26	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 85¢	$134.16	$134.16	+$1.58	69% 987-450 (1437)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 87¢	$137.19	$134.04	-$1.58	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$78.4	$62.4	-$16	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 13.8¢	$59.02	$55.58	+$0.84	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$23.99	$21.45	-$0.89	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$17.06	$17.06	+$0.2	40% 174-265 (439)
DE dedidancCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$2.72	$1.04	-$1.68	57% 103-77 (180)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$12,974.78

Value

$12.4K

PnL

-$437.34

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

dzsibenaja

Yes

Invested

$11,860.61

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$128.43

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$5,374.46

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$94.08

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$1,370.21

Value

$997.22

PnL

-$267.34

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$214.58

Value

$393.8

PnL

+$179.22

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$208.38

Value

$208.52

PnL

+$2.59

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$179.06

Value

$202.94

PnL

+$26.26

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$134.16

Value

$134.16

PnL

+$1.58

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$137.19

Value

$134.04

PnL

-$1.58

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$78.4

Value

$62.4

PnL

-$16

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$59.02

Value

$55.58

PnL

+$0.84

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$23.99

Value

$21.45

PnL

-$0.89

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.06

Value

$17.06

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

dedidancCTR<$100

Invested

$2.72

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$1.68

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 86%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.5%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.