Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$-5.7K

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares402,633

Combined PnL$-5.7K

No4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,201

Combined PnL+$59.63

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

1510h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
foodenjoyerCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$630.55	49% 47-49 (96)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$11.24	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 95.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$46.99	56% 973-770 (1743)
QM QMG-SCALAR	Noavg 99.4¢	$994	$994	+$0	75% 116-39 (155)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$980.08	$226.29	-$753.79	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
LI lissartterCTR	Yes	$178.13	$178.13	$-5.3K	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
DI DildoPhagginsCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$153.93	$153.93	-$10.99	— 3-0 (3)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 96.8¢	$123.15	$124.56	+$1.41	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$8.94	$10.28	-$98.9	39% 175-269 (444)
12 123987456CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$162.63	$5.29	-$157.35	45% 1906-2351 (4257)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$10	$3.5	-$6.75	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$24.46	$3.44	-$21.02	39% 1781-2832 (4613)

foodenjoyerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,576.38

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$630.55

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,721.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$11.24

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$1,277.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$46.99

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

QMG-SCALAR

Invested

$994

Value

$994

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

116-39 (155)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$980.08

Value

$226.29

PnL

-$753.79

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$178.13

Value

$178.13

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

DildoPhagginsCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.93

Value

$153.93

PnL

-$10.99

Record

—

3-0 (3)

ghorrock

Invested

$123.15

Value

$124.56

PnL

+$1.41

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.94

Value

$10.28

PnL

-$98.9

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

123987456CTR

Yes

Invested

$162.63

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$157.35

Record

45%

1906-2351 (4257)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$6.75

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.46

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$21.02

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

1510h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.