Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 61¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 4

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$719.05

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 60.5¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares20,532

Combined PnL-$844.37

Yes9 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares24,915

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 65.6¢	$12.4K	$11.4K	-$956.99	47% 474-534 (1008)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 40.1¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$69.76	20% 108-423 (531)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 26.8¢	$2.7K	$4.0K	+$1.3K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
mrworldwideCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$779.54	$1.1K	+$323.3	69% 804-359 (1163)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 71¢	$668.75	$546.3	-$98.9	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 60.3¢	$1.4K	$418.62	+$211.52	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
BA balerinacapuchinaCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$152	$160.54	+$6	72% 176-70 (246)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$89.87	$111.77	+$21.89	38% 20-32 (52)
SardinianshepherdCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$79.57	$86.32	+$5.38	65% 928-506 (1434)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.8¢	$52.99	$58.18	+$5.18	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
twinnaCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$36	$39.05	+$2.43	50% 92-93 (185)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3.41	$5.38	+$1.98	61% 203-132 (335)

anoin123

Invested

$12,372.47

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$956.99

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,402.59

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$69.76

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,683

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

mrworldwideCTR

Yes

Invested

$779.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$323.3

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

sbimbg

Invested

$668.75

Value

$546.3

PnL

-$98.9

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$1,405.02

Value

$418.62

PnL

+$211.52

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

balerinacapuchinaCTR

Yes

Invested

$152

Value

$160.54

PnL

+$6

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$89.87

Value

$111.77

PnL

+$21.89

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

SardinianshepherdCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.57

Value

$86.32

PnL

+$5.38

Record

65%

928-506 (1434)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.99

Value

$58.18

PnL

+$5.18

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

twinnaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36

Value

$39.05

PnL

+$2.43

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.41

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$1.98

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.4%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.