Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 16 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (94%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $81 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 94%

Total Value

$81.48

Combined PnL

-$652.67

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 17 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$68.59

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes16 traders

Total Value$11.91

Total Shares23,821

Combined PnL-$652.7

No — 6%Yes — 94%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

4922h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 94% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$73.52	$68.59	+$0.03	77% 11963-3647 (15610)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yes	$2.59	$2.59	-$182.57	28% 329-852 (1181)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$3.56	$1.73	-$1.69	27% 6708-18534 (25242)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yes	$1.6	$1.6	-$112.98	28% 649-1632 (2281)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$10	$1.25	-$8.75	47% 2048-2315 (4363)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yes	$1.09	$1.09	-$77.06	37% 455-781 (1236)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.93	$0.93	-$65.82	29% 357-873 (1230)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$0.62	$0.62	-$43.86	42% 3656-5058 (8714)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yes	$0.57	$0.57	-$40.19	29% 373-898 (1271)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yes	$0.55	$0.55	-$38.71	30% 369-870 (1239)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$2.43	$0.3	-$21.37	43% 2144-2793 (4937)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.28	$0.28	-$19.41	50% 9478-9478 (18956)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$0.24	$0.24	-$16.78	48% 102-110 (212)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yes	$0.11	$0.11	-$7.66	25% 1630-4964 (6594)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$270.35	$0.02	-$14.99	72% 8571-3391 (11962)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$0.88	$0.01	-$0.87	50% 998-1009 (2007)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0	$0.01	+$0.01	32% 6357-13258 (19615)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$73.52

Value

$68.59

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

11963-3647 (15610)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$182.57

Record

28%

329-852 (1181)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$1.69

Record

27%

6708-18534 (25242)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$112.98

Record

28%

649-1632 (2281)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$8.75

Record

47%

2048-2315 (4363)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$77.06

Record

37%

455-781 (1236)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$65.82

Record

29%

357-873 (1230)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$43.86

Record

42%

3656-5058 (8714)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$40.19

Record

29%

373-898 (1271)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$38.71

Record

30%

369-870 (1239)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.43

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$21.37

Record

43%

2144-2793 (4937)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$19.41

Record

50%

9478-9478 (18956)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$16.78

Record

48%

102-110 (212)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$7.66

Record

25%

1630-4964 (6594)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$270.35

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.99

Record

72%

8571-3391 (11962)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.87

Record

50%

998-1009 (2007)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

32%

6357-13258 (19615)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 17 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

4922h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 94% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.