Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

2 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 100¢ · $318 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$318.27

Combined PnL

-$804.77

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 21 top traders (10%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$301.75

Total Shares302

Combined PnL+$0.54

Yes19 traders

Total Value$15.66

Total Shares31,321

Combined PnL-$805.31

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

60 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 94% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.8¢	$299.83	$300.36	+$0.53	77% 11963-3647 (15610)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yes	$2.62	$2.62	-$184.52	28% 329-852 (1181)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$3.56	$1.73	-$1.69	27% 6708-18534 (25242)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.98	$1.49	-$1.49	50% 6072-6173 (12245)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yes	$1.42	$1.42	-$99.71	28% 649-1632 (2281)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$1.37	$1.39	+$0.01	29% 2880-7025 (9905)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$10	$1.25	-$8.75	47% 2048-2315 (4363)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yes	$1.14	$1.14	-$80.45	37% 455-781 (1236)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yes	$1.11	$1.11	-$78.29	27% 238-656 (894)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.96	$0.96	-$67.58	29% 357-873 (1230)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.66	$0.66	-$46.31	50% 9478-9478 (18956)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yes	$0.65	$0.65	-$45.8	42% 3656-5058 (8714)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yes	$0.65	$0.65	-$45.57	27% 218-592 (810)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yes	$0.6	$0.6	-$42.14	29% 373-898 (1271)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yes	$0.58	$0.58	-$40.66	30% 369-870 (1239)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$0.52	$0.52	-$36.81	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.3	$0.13	-$2.17	18% 4199-19790 (23989)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$4.72	29% 2268-5613 (7881)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$2.84	24% 302-944 (1246)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.03	+$0.03	32% 6357-13258 (19615)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$275.87	$0.02	-$15.85	72% 8571-3391 (11962)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$299.83

Value

$300.36

PnL

+$0.53

Record

77%

11963-3647 (15610)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$184.52

Record

28%

329-852 (1181)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$1.69

Record

27%

6708-18534 (25242)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.98

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$1.49

Record

50%

6072-6173 (12245)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$99.71

Record

28%

649-1632 (2281)

rated<$100

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.01

Record

29%

2880-7025 (9905)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$8.75

Record

47%

2048-2315 (4363)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$80.45

Record

37%

455-781 (1236)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$78.29

Record

27%

238-656 (894)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$67.58

Record

29%

357-873 (1230)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$46.31

Record

50%

9478-9478 (18956)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$45.8

Record

42%

3656-5058 (8714)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$45.57

Record

27%

218-592 (810)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$42.14

Record

29%

373-898 (1271)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$40.66

Record

30%

369-870 (1239)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$36.81

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.17

Record

18%

4199-19790 (23989)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.72

Record

29%

2268-5613 (7881)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.84

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

32%

6357-13258 (19615)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$275.87

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$15.85

Record

72%

8571-3391 (11962)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 21 top traders (10%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

60 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 94% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.