Consensus PnL $85K · win rate 35% (279–518, n=797) · PM monthly #120 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$84.6K
Record
279W / 518L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 797 settled
Batting Avg
20.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2549
Source
PM monthly #120
Record (90 d)
197/457 · 43%
Trades
5,614
Markets
1,543
Volume
$282.8K
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 10 on the consensus side (70%)- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $6.0K · now 61¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (79% of 55)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?No $5.0K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (61% of 49)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $3.7K · now 41¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?No $321 · now 5¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $130 · now 63¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (62% of 77)
- Will Fjord win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No $118 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will Podemos win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $94 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $72 · now 37¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
363 settled consensus markets · held side won 40% at an average entry of 41¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where klli27's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 86% of 14 at an average 86¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 57%(won 1% of 206)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 40% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 55% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 97% of 136)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.