Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$152.02

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 93.8¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,860

Combined PnL+$12.39

No9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares22,886

Combined PnL+$139.63

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 93.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$1.07	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 4.5¢	$4.5	$739.97	+$230.69	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 6.8¢	$389.34	$419.55	+$30.21	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 93.5¢	$348.15	$367.21	+$0.98	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 6.5¢	$198.89	$191.41	-$7.34	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 5.5¢	$232.41	$47	-$93.64	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
Ryxon21<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$28.5	$38.11	+$9.67	71% 318-130 (448)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 4.2¢	$14.41	$21.54	+$7.13	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
IN insideroCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$33	$6.25	-$26.75	76% 291-93 (384)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Noavg 5.4¢	$3.72	$4.31	+$0.59	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
fireponbabylon<$100	Yesavg 68.6¢	$1.82	$2.49	+$0.67	43% 370-481 (851)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 93.9¢	$1.11	$1.11	-$0	40% 174-265 (439)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.39	$0.28	-$1.11	72% 1535-585 (2120)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$0.21	$0.06	-$0.15	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$1,365.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.07

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$4.5

Value

$739.97

PnL

+$230.69

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$389.34

Value

$419.55

PnL

+$30.21

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$348.15

Value

$367.21

PnL

+$0.98

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$198.89

Value

$191.41

PnL

-$7.34

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$232.41

Value

$47

PnL

-$93.64

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Ryxon21<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.5

Value

$38.11

PnL

+$9.67

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$14.41

Value

$21.54

PnL

+$7.13

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

insideroCTR<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$26.75

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.59

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

fireponbabylon<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$0.67

Record

43%

370-481 (851)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.11

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.15

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.