Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Heat (63%). 14 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Warriors (-7.5)

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (70%) · Warriors at 38¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 6

Warriors38¢Heat62¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 70%

Total Value

$26.8K

Combined PnL

-$462.52

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 37.5¢

-19% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

14 of 20 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 63%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors38%

Heat63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors14 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares38,758

Combined PnL-$178.3

Heat6 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares16,811

Combined PnL-$284.23

Warriors — 70%Heat — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrWarriors 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Warriorsavg 46.5¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$46.72	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
FO forecastication4CTR	Warriorsavg 46¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$96.27	50% 1380-1391 (2771)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Heatavg 58.8¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$416.17	48% 347-378 (725)
nehcnehc	Heatavg 52.2¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$43.35	61% 4150-2619 (6769)
HI hi774cCTR	Warriorsavg 46¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$48.13	46% 5200-6052 (11252)
IA ianf2026	Heatavg 51¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$56.35	49% 104-109 (213)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Warriorsavg 46.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$4.17	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Warriorsavg 46¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$327.14	60% 4622-3029 (7651)
JE jeremyclarCTR	Warriorsavg 42.2¢	$942.57	$1.0K	+$106.47	42% 53-74 (127)
VeryLucky888CTR	Warriorsavg 46.5¢	$465	$470	+$5	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
SE sentrioCTR	Warriorsavg 47¢	$558.89	$446.12	-$112.77	50% 25827-25531 (51358)
NM NM-PCTR	Warriorsavg 46.4¢	$406	$411.25	+$5.25	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
GC GC-PCTR	Warriorsavg 46.4¢	$406	$411.25	+$9.63	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
nigiri99	Heatavg 54¢	$212.76	$244.28	+$31.52	46% 8594-10246 (18840)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 46.7¢	$418.66	$190.93	-$57.69	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
OD Oddstorm	Heatavg 62.1¢	$109.35	$110.1	+$0.75	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 46¢	$46	$47	+$1	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 37¢	$38.58	$39.1	+$0.52	51% 1902-1853 (3755)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 46.9¢	$27.26	$23.4	-$3.85	54% 9740-8132 (17872)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Heatavg 52.2¢	$5.22	$5.2	-$0.02	53% 2579-2259 (4838)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Warriors

Invested

$4,723.42

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$46.72

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

forecastication4CTR

Warriors

Invested

$4,428.42

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$96.27

Record

50%

1380-1391 (2771)

Multicoloured-Serf

Heat

Invested

$4,230.24

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$416.17

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

nehcnehc

Heat

Invested

$2,753.91

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$43.35

Record

61%

4150-2619 (6769)

hi774cCTR

Warriors

Invested

$2,214

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$48.13

Record

46%

5200-6052 (11252)

ianf2026

Heat

Invested

$1,915.74

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$56.35

Record

49%

104-109 (213)

HerdoniaCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,604.89

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$4.17

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

SunlineTickerCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,933.89

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$327.14

Record

60%

4622-3029 (7651)

jeremyclarCTR

Warriors

Invested

$942.57

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$106.47

Record

42%

53-74 (127)

VeryLucky888CTR

Warriors

Invested

$465

Value

$470

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

sentrioCTR

Warriors

Invested

$558.89

Value

$446.12

PnL

-$112.77

Record

50%

25827-25531 (51358)

NM-PCTR

Warriors

Invested

$406

Value

$411.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

GC-PCTR

Warriors

Invested

$406

Value

$411.25

PnL

+$9.63

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

nigiri99

Heat

Invested

$212.76

Value

$244.28

PnL

+$31.52

Record

46%

8594-10246 (18840)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$418.66

Value

$190.93

PnL

-$57.69

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

Oddstorm

Heat

Invested

$109.35

Value

$110.1

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$46

Value

$47

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$38.58

Value

$39.1

PnL

+$0.52

Record

51%

1902-1853 (3755)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$27.26

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$3.85

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Heat

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

2579-2259 (4838)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

14 of 20 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 63%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrWarriors 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.