Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 86% (12–2, n=14) · hand-picked wallet · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.5K
Record
12W / 2L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 14 settled
Batting Avg
83.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#326
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
2,169
Markets
66
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 10 on the consensus side (90%)- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $45K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $29K · now 97¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $24K · now 95¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $21K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes $4.5K · now 66¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes $3.3K · now 82¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?No $1.5K · now 78¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes $1.3K · now 90¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
Specialties
52 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 94¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +6%
- Finance
+3 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 90% of 10 at an average 92¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 100% of 51)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.