Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?
3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (23%) · No at 86¢ · $32K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 23%
$32.4K
$1.8K
66¢ → 86¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VS vsdiz1337 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $18.6K | $25.6K | +$7.0K | — 2-13 (15) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 80.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$20.7 | 42% 5283-7233 (12516) |
TA taxmoneyCTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $7.0K | $1.9K | $-5.0K | — |
 sciuboiCTR | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $2.1K | $1.7K | -$345.43 | 39% 201-319 (520) |
 QubiBgCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $294.77 | $442.15 | +$110.54 | — 2-0 (2) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $139.91 | $180 | +$40.09 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
MA Maki777CTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $120 | $96 | -$28 | 38% 9-15 (24) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $24.07 | $90.56 | +$66.49 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
 0xdc3E831cad<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $69 | $89 | +$20 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
RO rocky42019CTR | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $1.2K | $40.51 | +$60.06 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $51.82 | $26.31 | -$25.51 | 50% 356-357 (713) |
GH ghorrockCTR | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $255.91 | $19.46 | -$40.61 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $3.12 | $2.88 | -$0.36 | 50% 7969-8009 (15978) |
Invested
$18,645.88
Value
$25.6K
PnL
+$7.0K
Record
—
2-13 (15)
Invested
$2,135.32
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$20.7
Record
42%
5283-7233 (12516)
Invested
$6,953.29
Value
$1.9K
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
—
sciuboiCTRInvested
$2,074.04
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$345.43
Record
39%
201-319 (520)
QubiBgCTRInvested
$294.77
Value
$442.15
PnL
+$110.54
Record
—
2-0 (2)
NadmiCTRInvested
$139.91
Value
$180
PnL
+$40.09
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$120
Value
$96
PnL
-$28
Record
38%
9-15 (24)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$24.07
Value
$90.56
PnL
+$66.49
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
0xdc3E831cad<$100Invested
$69
Value
$89
PnL
+$20
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$1,213.4
Value
$40.51
PnL
+$60.06
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
Invested
$51.82
Value
$26.31
PnL
-$25.51
Record
50%
356-357 (713)
Invested
$255.91
Value
$19.46
PnL
-$40.61
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$3.12
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.36
Record
50%
7969-8009 (15978)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.