Consensus PnL $53K · win rate 59% (4469–3130, n=7599) · was PM monthly #964 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$53.2K
Record
4469W / 3130L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 7599 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1203
Source
PM monthly #964
Trades
129
Markets
15,199
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 17 on the consensus side (12%)- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $72 · now 75¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (41% of 39)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $50 · now 20¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?No $47 · now 16¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $44 · now 19¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $37 · now 23¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?No $26 · now 8¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes $21 · now 9¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No $21 · now 8¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
3,243 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 52¢- Crypto
+28 pts
side won 80% of 3240 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +24%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 50% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 47%(won 76% of 1535)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 83% of 1631)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 96% of 71)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.