Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 85¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 4

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$183.33

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 84.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares12,135

Combined PnL+$196.78

No6 traders

Total Value$283.33

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL-$13.45

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4464h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 79.8¢	$5.8K	$6.1K	+$336.04	67% 751-378 (1129)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 83.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$12.88	94% 442-28 (470)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 91.1¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$133.45	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 85¢	$959.89	$954.24	-$22.58	85% 311-57 (368)
SB sbimbgCTR	Noavg 19.4¢	$133.2	$106.64	-$26.56	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
probability	Yesavg 80.5¢	$95.5	$101.64	+$6.14	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 13.6¢	$53.94	$62	+$8.05	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$51.85	$47.28	-$4.58	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100	No	$44.64	$44.64	+$10.33	55% 463-373 (836)
TH TheFOMCGambler<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$44	$42.25	-$2.25	76% 102-32 (134)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$17	$15.5	+$0	66% 955-482 (1437)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$7.99	$7.29	-$0.71	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Yes

Invested

$5,752.86

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$336.04

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$1,655.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$12.88

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$1,507.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$133.45

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$959.89

Value

$954.24

PnL

-$22.58

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

sbimbgCTR

Invested

$133.2

Value

$106.64

PnL

-$26.56

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

probability

Yes

Invested

$95.5

Value

$101.64

PnL

+$6.14

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$53.94

Value

$62

PnL

+$8.05

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Invested

$51.85

Value

$47.28

PnL

-$4.58

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

FrozenParasiteCTR<$100

Invested

$44.64

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$10.33

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

TheFOMCGambler<$100

Yes

Invested

$44

Value

$42.25

PnL

-$2.25

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$15.5

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$0.71

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4464h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.