Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$40.9

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 92¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 92%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,827

Combined PnL+$30.26

No5 traders

Total Value$172.74

Total Shares2,042

Combined PnL+$10.64

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

448h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Yesavg 91.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$4.26	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 89¢	$940.88	$1.1K	+$31.55	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 93¢	$929.59	$920	-$14.59	77% 1408-416 (1824)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 90.4¢	$359.27	$363.99	+$4.73	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
AngryRhino	Yesavg 91¢	$312.59	$316.02	+$1.72	69% 133-59 (192)
probability<$100	Yesavg 88.1¢	$62.11	$64.87	+$2.76	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.5	$64.75	+$8.14	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 8.7¢	$63.16	$61.88	-$1.28	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$27.54	$26.01	-$1.53	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 91.2¢	$78.85	$14.83	-$0.18	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$10.23	$13.63	+$3.41	61% 203-132 (335)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$4.56	$6.46	+$1.9	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$2.57	$2.59	+$0.01	40% 174-265 (439)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$1,829.1

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$4.26

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$940.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.55

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$929.59

Value

$920

PnL

-$14.59

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$359.27

Value

$363.99

PnL

+$4.73

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$312.59

Value

$316.02

PnL

+$1.72

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

probability<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.11

Value

$64.87

PnL

+$2.76

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

$64.75

PnL

+$8.14

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$63.16

Value

$61.88

PnL

-$1.28

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Invested

$27.54

Value

$26.01

PnL

-$1.53

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.85

Value

$14.83

PnL

-$0.18

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100

Invested

$10.23

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$3.41

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$6.46

PnL

+$1.9

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 92%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

448h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.