Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 33¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 4

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.5K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

30.2¢ → 32.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares93,051

Combined PnL+$1.7K

No2 traders

Total Value$866.96

Total Shares1,294

Combined PnL+$60.75

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$23.3K	$24.1K	+$768.46	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$656.81	79% 332-89 (421)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$817.43	$801.47	-$15.96	40% 174-265 (439)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.2¢	$530.32	$544.7	+$32.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$304.92	$256.77	-$48.14
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 28.1¢	$670.1	$764	+$93.91	40% 704-1061 (1765)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$700	$640	-$60	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 63.1¢	$143.98	$606.35	+$21.86	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 17.3¢	$318.68	$588.7	+$270.02	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 58¢	$225.61	$260.62	+$38.9	59% 3428-2336 (5764)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 36.8¢	$273.83	$237.89	-$35.95	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
SB sbimbgARB<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$63.86	$64.73	+$1.28	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$38.53	$37.36	-$1.17
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$25.33	$27.37	+$2.45

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$23,344.78

Value

$24.1K

PnL

+$768.46

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,892.25

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$656.81

Record

79%

332-89 (421)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Invested

$817.43

Value

$801.47

PnL

-$15.96

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Both legs:

No$530.3265.2¢+$32.19

Yes$304.9238¢-$48.14

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$670.1

Value

$764

PnL

+$93.91

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$700

Value

$640

PnL

-$60

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$143.98

Value

$606.35

PnL

+$21.86

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$318.68

Value

$588.7

PnL

+$270.02

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

shiifoo

Invested

$225.61

Value

$260.62

PnL

+$38.9

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$273.83

Value

$237.89

PnL

-$35.95

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

sbimbgARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.86

Value

$64.73

PnL

+$1.28

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Both legs:

Yes$38.5333¢-$1.17

No$25.3362¢+$2.45

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

682h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.4%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$190.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

290.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.