Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 93¢ · $28K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$27.9K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 93¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$27.8K

Total Shares29,921

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$96.36

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL-$416.27

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OE oegdatam	Noavg 86.7¢	$8.8K	$9.4K	+$641.23	87% 149-22 (171)
DF DFV2	Noavg 87.1¢	$6.5K	$6.9K	+$457.68	91% 198-19 (217)
PH phdcapital	Noavg 77.4¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$498.48	94% 259-17 (276)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 90¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$92.51	85% 605-108 (713)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 89¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$100	89% 563-67 (630)
solwizzo-onX	Noavg 76¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$255	67% 347-174 (521)
CO cowcat	No	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$758.16	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 72¢	$195.89	$253.03	+$57.13	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
alanhutton	Noavg 77.7¢	$170.06	$203.66	+$33.6	68% 335-158 (493)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 82.1¢	$163.14	$167.15	+$4.02	54% 785-659 (1444)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 72.5¢	$112.27	$144.11	+$31.84	54% 229-195 (424)
PA pakoCTR	Yesavg 36.6¢	$479.63	$89.36	-$390.27	65% 250-132 (382)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$33	$7	-$26	72% 1257-483 (1740)

oegdatam

Invested

$8,799.98

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$641.23

Record

87%

149-22 (171)

DFV2

Invested

$6,478.33

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$457.68

Record

91%

198-19 (217)

phdcapital

Invested

$2,474.02

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$498.48

Record

94%

259-17 (276)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$2,743.98

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$92.51

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$2,225

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

solwizzo-onX

Invested

$1,140.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$255

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

cowcat

Invested

$1,152.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$758.16

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Albert 1953

Invested

$195.89

Value

$253.03

PnL

+$57.13

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

alanhutton

Invested

$170.06

Value

$203.66

PnL

+$33.6

Record

68%

335-158 (493)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$163.14

Value

$167.15

PnL

+$4.02

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$112.27

Value

$144.11

PnL

+$31.84

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

pakoCTR

Yes

Invested

$479.63

Value

$89.36

PnL

-$390.27

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33

Value

PnL

-$26

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.4%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.