Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 89¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 4

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$55.4K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 88.9¢

+10% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 89%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$54.3K

Total Shares61,269

Combined PnL+$4.9K

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares8,999

Combined PnL-$751.41

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Yesavg 79¢	$25.6K	$28.7K	+$3.2K	67% 751-378 (1129)
scottilicious	Yesavg 87¢	$10.1K	$10.3K	+$212.32	82% 945-201 (1146)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 87¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$108.89	38% 20-32 (52)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 74.9¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$466.54	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 86.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$55.56	69% 156-69 (225)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 76.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$234.14	58% 182-132 (314)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 19.7¢	$1.7K	$949.78	-$725.04	47% 474-534 (1008)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yesavg 84.4¢	$720.41	$691.08	+$35.06	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 78.8¢	$31.52	$680.82	+$85.11	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
IN insidero	Yesavg 82.9¢	$470.01	$502.38	+$33.22	76% 291-93 (384)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 45.2¢	$339.49	$422.14	+$142.27	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 82.8¢	$397.69	$397.49	-$0.2	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
nicoco89	Yesavg 7.3¢	$23.96	$296.59	+$272.63	65% 1075-583 (1658)
PU PutsOnPeace<$100	Yesavg 88.8¢	$88.8	$88.6	-$0.05	66% 955-482 (1437)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 82.5¢	$151.57	$71.31	-$0.63	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$81.44	$54.29	-$25.91	69% 987-450 (1437)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.1	$33.18	+$32.17	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$3.25	$2.75	-$0.46	50% 7969-8009 (15978)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Yes

Invested

$25,640.88

Value

$28.7K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$10,089.92

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$212.32

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$5,255.78

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$108.89

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$2,523.67

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$466.54

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$1,999.77

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$55.56

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$1,498.46

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$234.14

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$1,674.82

Value

$949.78

PnL

-$725.04

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Yes

Invested

$720.41

Value

$691.08

PnL

+$35.06

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$31.52

Value

$680.82

PnL

+$85.11

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$470.01

Value

$502.38

PnL

+$33.22

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$339.49

Value

$422.14

PnL

+$142.27

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$397.69

Value

$397.49

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

nicoco89

Yes

Invested

$23.96

Value

$296.59

PnL

+$272.63

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

PutsOnPeace<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.8

Value

$88.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$151.57

Value

$71.31

PnL

-$0.63

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Invested

$81.44

Value

$54.29

PnL

-$25.91

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$33.18

PnL

+$32.17

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 89%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.3%

88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.