Consensus PnL $16K · win rate 87% (52–8, n=60) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.4K
Record
52W / 8L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 60 settled
Batting Avg
68.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#302
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
3,254
Markets
138
Volume
$534.2K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $9.8K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $6.4K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (95% of 37)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $4.8K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?No $4.5K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No $2.9K · now 98¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?No $2.7K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.5K · now 99¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
Specialties
119 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 84¢- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 100% of 17 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 95% of 21 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 83% of 18 at an average 86¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 0% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 0% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 88% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 97% of 101)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.