Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 13% (35–238, n=273) · PM monthly #442 · holds 94 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$34.9K
Record
35W / 238L
Win Rate
13.0%
of 273 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1697
Source
PM monthly #442
Record (90 d)
37/38 · 97%
Trades
628
Markets
3,589
Volume
$938.8K
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Top consensus positions
94 in listed consensus markets · 81 of 94 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $29K · now 82¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (32% of 60)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $26K · now 17¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (60% of 80)
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $26K · now 49¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 37)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $18K · now 34¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (74% of 75)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $17K · now 13¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $12K · now 8¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $11K · now 8¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (85% of 54)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $7.4K · now 19¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
227 settled consensus markets · held side won 27% at an average entry of 56¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where tugator's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 13% of 189 at an average 47¢ entry (−34 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 74%(won 10% of 167)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 36% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 100% of 41)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.