Consensus PnL $445K · win rate 53% (529–465, n=994) · PM monthly #72 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$445.2K
Record
529W / 465L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 994 settled
Batting Avg
56.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1554
Source
PM monthly #72
Trades
1,442
Markets
1,390
Volume
$28.2M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $21K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 25)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $16K · now 72¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $6.0K · now 75¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (56% of 39)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.6K · now 71¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.8K · now 95¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $2.1K · now 84¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No $2.0K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $5 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
925 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 54¢- Esports
+9 pts
side won 58% of 353 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +8%
- NBA
+11 pts
side won 57% of 30 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +23%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 66% of 88 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 67% of 15 at an average 80¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 11% of 251)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 46% of 170)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 73% of 180)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 96% of 324)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.