Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $714 held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$714.17

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 0.4¢

-55% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$689.27

Total Shares172,319

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No2 traders

Total Value$24.9

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$0.06

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

3788h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$132.2	$346.39	+$223.86	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.0K	$113.75	-$901.85	46% 271-319 (590)
DragontreeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$55	$80	+$25.8	58% 1250-887 (2137)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$75.14	$75.14	-$397.3	7% 14-187 (201)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$20	$45.87	-$26.46	36% 190-333 (523)
yen4u<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.92	-$0.04	86% 807-136 (943)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$2.52	$15.74	-$124.8	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$48.56	$6.01	-$42.34	59% 3428-2336 (5764)
zb8<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.98	-$0.02	53% 641-561 (1202)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0	$3.79	+$3.79	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yes	$2.02	$2.02	-$16.05	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$0.56	$0.56	-$4.45	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$132.2

Value

$346.39

PnL

+$223.86

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,015.6

Value

$113.75

PnL

-$901.85

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

DragontreeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55

Value

$80

PnL

+$25.8

Record

58%

1250-887 (2137)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.14

Value

$75.14

PnL

-$397.3

Record

14-187 (201)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$45.87

PnL

-$26.46

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

yen4u<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.92

PnL

-$0.04

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$15.74

PnL

-$124.8

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.56

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$42.34

Record

59%

3428-2336 (5764)

zb8<$100

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

641-561 (1202)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$3.79

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$16.05

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$4.45

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

3788h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7042.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

7142.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.