Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Michael Geerts, while the market favors Juan Martin (52%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hersonissos 3: Michael Geerts vs Juan Martin

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Geerts (46%) · Michael Geerts at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Michael Geerts49¢Juan Martin51¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michael Geerts

Consensus Traders

Michael Geerts 46%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$3.71

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 48.5¢

-21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichael Geerts at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Geerts

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Martin 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michael Geerts49%

Juan Martin52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Geerts6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,426

Combined PnL-$126.83

Juan Martin7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,624

Combined PnL+$123.11

Michael Geerts — 46%Juan Martin — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Michael Geertsavg 65.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$121.11	54% 93-78 (171)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Juan Martinavg 34¢	$515.61	$621.77	+$106.15	54% 1596-1343 (2939)
LI LightParadox	Juan Martinavg 48.8¢	$266.51	$270.38	+$3.87	24% 201-625 (826)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Michael Geertsavg 49.5¢	$198	$194	-$4	31% 51-112 (163)
LI Limousin	Juan Martinavg 51¢	$165.74	$167.37	+$1.62	24% 199-638 (837)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 49.7¢	$89.45	$87.3	-$2.15	14% 60-356 (416)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Juan Martinavg 35¢	$46.53	$54.51	+$7.98	34% 161-312 (473)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 50¢	$25	$25.25	+$0.25	56% 3774-2942 (6716)
RN1CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 50¢	$20.81	$21.5	+$0.69	58% 3741-2693 (6434)
MA MadridTime<$100	Juan Martinavg 48¢	$20.57	$20.78	+$0.21	24% 200-617 (817)
38 38791873984189<$100	Juan Martinavg 46¢	$13.08	$13.79	+$0.71	48% 695-751 (1446)
PA Pan9X<$100	Juan Martinavg 33¢	$10.56	$13.12	+$2.56	48% 400-437 (837)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Michael Geertsavg 63¢	$8.01	$7.5	-$0.51	22% 77-281 (358)

0xheavy888CTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$1,150.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$121.11

Record

54%

93-78 (171)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Juan Martin

Invested

$515.61

Value

$621.77

PnL

+$106.15

Record

54%

1596-1343 (2939)

LightParadox

Juan Martin

Invested

$266.51

Value

$270.38

PnL

+$3.87

Record

24%

201-625 (826)

thirdt1meCTR

Michael Geerts

Invested

$198

Value

$194

PnL

-$4

Record

31%

51-112 (163)

Limousin

Juan Martin

Invested

$165.74

Value

$167.37

PnL

+$1.62

Record

24%

199-638 (837)

babybellsCTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$89.45

Value

$87.3

PnL

-$2.15

Record

14%

60-356 (416)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$46.53

Value

$54.51

PnL

+$7.98

Record

34%

161-312 (473)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$25

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

3774-2942 (6716)

RN1CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$20.81

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

3741-2693 (6434)

MadridTime<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$20.57

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$0.21

Record

24%

200-617 (817)

38791873984189<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$13.08

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$0.71

Record

48%

695-751 (1446)

Pan9X<$100

Juan Martin

Invested

$10.56

Value

$13.12

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

400-437 (837)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Michael Geerts

Invested

$8.01

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.51

Record

22%

77-281 (358)

Research grade

NeutralMichael Geerts at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Geerts

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Martin 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Geerts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.