Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Max Houkes, while the market favors Michael Vrbensky (62%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bratislava 2: Max Houkes vs Michael Vrbensky

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Max Houkes (29%) · Max Houkes at 39¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 9

Max Houkes39¢Michael Vrbensky61¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Houkes

Consensus Traders

Max Houkes 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

-$208.2

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 38.5¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Houkes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Houkes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Michael Vrbensky 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Max Houkes39%

Michael Vrbensky62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Houkes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,752

Combined PnL-$253.1

Michael Vrbensky10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,837

Combined PnL+$44.9

Max Houkes — 29%Michael Vrbensky — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Max Houkes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Max Houkes) and the top 1000 (9 on Michael Vrbensky) disagree here.

whaleMichael Vrbensky 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpMax Houkes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMax Houkes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMax Houkes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michael Vrbensky 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 63.5¢	$11.7K	$9.7K	$-1.9K	54% 58127-50358 (108485)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 63.5¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	-$2.98
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 57.4¢	$5.6K	$3.5K	$-1.9K
88MCTR	Max Houkesavg 40.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$180.15	42% 800-1095 (1895)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 46.2¢	$629.79	$734.73	+$104.93	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 46.2¢	$442.6	$570.33	+$127.72
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 46.1¢	$187.19	$164.4	-$22.79
NO NotJump	Michael Vrbenskyavg 65¢	$650	$655	+$5	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 63.7¢	$1.2K	$624.79	-$282.18	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
└ Michael Vrbensky leg	Michael Vrbenskyavg 63.7¢	$404.32	$403.14	-$1.18
└ Max Houkes leg	Max Houkesavg 56.4¢	$342.46	$221.65	-$281
FL FlaznorpCTR	Max Houkesavg 48.3¢	$282.72	$225.32	-$57.4	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Michael Vrbenskyavg 53¢	$173.02	$178.17	+$5.15	52% 5702-5267 (10969)
TH thestingsnake	Michael Vrbenskyavg 56.8¢	$96.5	$105.4	+$8.9	60% 4149-2784 (6933)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 31.3¢	$39.98	$75.39	+$4.1	61% 13846-8751 (22597)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 60.6¢	$55.58	$58.23	+$2.65	52% 14029-12787 (26816)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 54.9¢	$50.54	$56.6	+$6.06	54% 5907-4953 (10860)
nigiri99<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 33.5¢	$16.41	$29.64	+$13.22	46% 7287-8597 (15884)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 63¢	$64.63	$29.26	-$15.36	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
SE sentrio<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 65¢	$27.89	$27.25	-$0.64	50% 25000-24720 (49720)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.9	+$0.2	86% 6398-1078 (7476)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 48¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	51% 997-961 (1958)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Max Houkesavg 47¢	$1.41	$1.23	-$0.18	53% 6371-5759 (12130)

RN1ARB<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$11,685.35

Value

$9.7K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

58127-50358 (108485)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$6,128.7863.5¢-$2.98

Max Houkes$5,556.5857.4¢$-1.9K

88MCTR

Max Houkes

Invested

$1,246.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$180.15

Record

42%

800-1095 (1895)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$629.79

Value

$734.73

PnL

+$104.93

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$442.646.2¢+$127.72

Max Houkes$187.1946.1¢-$22.79

NotJump

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$650

Value

$655

PnL

+$5

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$1,212.6

Value

$624.79

PnL

-$282.18

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

Both legs:

Michael Vrbensky$404.3263.7¢-$1.18

Max Houkes$342.4656.4¢-$281

FlaznorpCTR

Max Houkes

Invested

$282.72

Value

$225.32

PnL

-$57.4

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

CandleHammerDrums

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$173.02

Value

$178.17

PnL

+$5.15

Record

52%

5702-5267 (10969)

thestingsnake

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$96.5

Value

$105.4

PnL

+$8.9

Record

60%

4149-2784 (6933)

Lilybaeum<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$39.98

Value

$75.39

PnL

+$4.1

Record

61%

13846-8751 (22597)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$55.58

Value

$58.23

PnL

+$2.65

Record

52%

14029-12787 (26816)

Eulhunter<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$50.54

Value

$56.6

PnL

+$6.06

Record

54%

5907-4953 (10860)

nigiri99<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$16.41

Value

$29.64

PnL

+$13.22

Record

46%

7287-8597 (15884)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$64.63

Value

$29.26

PnL

-$15.36

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

sentrio<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$27.89

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$0.64

Record

50%

25000-24720 (49720)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

86%

6398-1078 (7476)

ferdinand2<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$4.75

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Max Houkes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

Research grade

NeutralMax Houkes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Max Houkes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Michael Vrbensky 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Max Houkes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Max Houkes) and the top 1000 (9 on Michael Vrbensky) disagree here.

whaleMichael Vrbensky 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpMax Houkes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMax Houkes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMax Houkes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Michael Vrbensky 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Houkes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.