Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Johannus Monday, while the market favors Francesco Maestrelli (59%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hersonissos 3: Francesco Maestrelli vs Johannus Monday

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Johannus Monday (67%) · Johannus Monday at 42¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18

Francesco Maestrelli59¢Johannus Monday41¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Johannus Monday

Consensus Traders

Johannus Monday 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$54.03

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 41.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJohannus Monday at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Johannus Monday

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Francesco Maestrelli 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Francesco Maestrelli59%

Johannus Monday42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Johannus Monday8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,087

Combined PnL+$49.91

Francesco Maestrelli4 traders

Total Value$184.55

Total Shares286

Combined PnL+$4.13

Johannus Monday — 67%Francesco Maestrelli — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Johannus Mondayavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$14.48	57% 4020-3036 (7056)
VeryLucky888CTR	Johannus Mondayavg 38¢	$518.29	$545.57	+$27.28	52% 440-413 (853)
VE VenusianCTR	Johannus Mondayavg 40.1¢	$394.63	$408.7	+$14.07	30% 371-860 (1231)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Johannus Mondayavg 40.7¢	$257.62	$250.16	-$7.46	31% 372-838 (1210)
FL Flaznorp	Francesco Maestrelliavg 58.4¢	$113.77	$119.06	+$5.29	51% 1816-1775 (3591)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 59.4¢	$72.21	$72.95	+$0.74	56% 3836-3005 (6841)
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 59.4¢	$47.37	$48.27	+$0.9
└ Johannus Monday leg	Johannus Mondayavg 39.8¢	$24.83	$24.68	-$0.16
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 45¢	$67.5	$68.25	+$0.75	39% 472-733 (1205)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 60¢	$39.97	$38.97	-$1	61% 920-590 (1510)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 44¢	$20.68	$21.39	+$0.71	49% 91-96 (187)
PA Pan9X<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 61¢	$15.86	$15.6	-$0.26	48% 654-703 (1357)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 57¢	$10.83	$10.92	+$0.09	53% 1783-1584 (3367)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 39¢	$2.64	$2.71	+$0.07	37% 338-564 (902)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.07	+$0.02	21% 129-485 (614)

RN1CTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$1,187.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$14.48

Record

57%

4020-3036 (7056)

VeryLucky888CTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$518.29

Value

$545.57

PnL

+$27.28

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

VenusianCTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$394.63

Value

$408.7

PnL

+$14.07

Record

30%

371-860 (1231)

MadridTimeCTR

Johannus Monday

Invested

$257.62

Value

$250.16

PnL

-$7.46

Record

31%

372-838 (1210)

Flaznorp

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$113.77

Value

$119.06

PnL

+$5.29

Record

51%

1816-1775 (3591)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$72.21

Value

$72.95

PnL

+$0.74

Record

56%

3836-3005 (6841)

Both legs:

Francesco Maestrelli$47.3759.4¢+$0.9

Johannus Monday$24.8339.8¢-$0.16

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$67.5

Value

$68.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

39%

472-733 (1205)

darkumbreon88<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$39.97

Value

$38.97

PnL

-$1

Record

61%

920-590 (1510)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$20.68

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$0.71

Record

49%

91-96 (187)

Pan9X<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$15.86

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$0.26

Record

48%

654-703 (1357)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1783-1584 (3367)

sentrioCTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.07

Record

37%

338-564 (902)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

21%

129-485 (614)

Research grade

NeutralJohannus Monday at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Johannus Monday

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Francesco Maestrelli 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Johannus Monday wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.