KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo vs. Balkan Botevgrad

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Balkan Botevgrad (50%) · Balkan Botevgrad at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo<1¢Balkan Botevgrad>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Balkan Botevgrad

Consensus Traders

Balkan Botevgrad 50%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$411.65

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBalkan Botevgrad at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Botevgrad

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo0%

Balkan Botevgrad100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Balkan Botevgrad5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,315

Combined PnL-$334.99

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo5 traders

Total Value$193.19

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$76.66

Balkan Botevgrad — 50%KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Balkan Botevgradavg 83.3¢	$431.31	$517.29	+$85.98	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
alpheclabs2	Balkan Botevgradavg 86¢	$726.92	$431.59	-$295.33	47% 1163-1315 (2478)
poshposh	Balkan Botevgradavg 82.6¢	$280.28	$306.96	+$26.68	57% 12279-9333 (21612)
SL SlickRick123	Balkan Botevgradavg 82¢	$470.49	$286.88	-$183.61	48% 5273-5766 (11039)
FL FlaznorpCTR	KK Bosna Royal Sarajevoavg 55.2¢	$159.98	$105.75	-$54.23	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Balkan Botevgradavg 18.7¢	$18.75	$50.03	+$31.28	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	KK Bosna Royal Sarajevoavg 82¢	$82	$50	-$32	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	KK Bosna Royal Sarajevoavg 45.2¢	$37.85	$34.89	+$3.16	48% 243-261 (504)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	KK Bosna Royal Sarajevoavg 3.1¢	$0.16	$2.5	+$2.34	59% 31875-22502 (54377)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR	KK Bosna Royal Sarajevoavg 48.4¢	$102.87	$0.06	+$4.06	82% 7029-1518 (8547)

cigarettes

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$431.31

Value

$517.29

PnL

+$85.98

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

alpheclabs2

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$726.92

Value

$431.59

PnL

-$295.33

Record

47%

1163-1315 (2478)

poshposh

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$280.28

Value

$306.96

PnL

+$26.68

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

SlickRick123

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$470.49

Value

$286.88

PnL

-$183.61

Record

48%

5273-5766 (11039)

FlaznorpCTR

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo

Invested

$159.98

Value

$105.75

PnL

-$54.23

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Balkan Botevgrad

Invested

$18.75

Value

$50.03

PnL

+$31.28

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo

Invested

$82

Value

$50

PnL

-$32

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo

Invested

$37.85

Value

$34.89

PnL

+$3.16

Record

48%

243-261 (504)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo

Invested

$0.16

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$2.34

Record

59%

31875-22502 (54377)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR

KK Bosna Royal Sarajevo

Invested

$102.87

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$4.06

Record

82%

7029-1518 (8547)

Research grade

AvoidBalkan Botevgrad at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Botevgrad

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Balkan Botevgrad wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.