SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 98¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 98¢

+48% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares22,855

Combined PnL+$5.7K

Over7 traders

Total Value$218.87

Total Shares1,637

Combined PnL-$251.86

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 66.6¢	$8.8K	$12.8K	+$4.1K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 65.5¢	$5.7K	$7.0K	+$1.3K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.3¢	$783.96	$810	+$26
└ Over leg	Overavg 35¢	$280	$260	-$20
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 67.8¢	$780.77	$1.1K	+$284.12	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
AN Anon455	Underavg 65¢	$162.5	$168.75	+$6.25	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 34¢	$400	$130	-$6	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 23.4¢	$82.93	$52.33	-$27.23	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 25.2¢	$237.45	$24.33	-$213.11	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$2.62	$6.8	+$4.18	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 63¢	$3.35	$3.38	+$0.03	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$2.6	$2.9	+$0.3	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$5	$1.63	-$0.08	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 21.4¢	$10.81	$0.89	-$9.93	46% 30563-35669 (66232)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$8,766.68

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$5,696.52

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,064

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Both legs:

Under$783.9665.3¢+$26

Over$28035¢-$20

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$780.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$284.12

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$162.5

Value

$168.75

PnL

+$6.25

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$130

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.93

Value

$52.33

PnL

-$27.23

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$237.45

Value

$24.33

PnL

-$213.11

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.62

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$4.18

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.81

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$9.93

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.