Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 96¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
$7.6K
$12.27
92.7¢ → 95.5¢
+3% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.6¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$78.24 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1 | Noavg 94¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$39.04 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94¢ | $304.87 | $306.49 | +$1.62 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
AN Anon455CTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $389 | $282.03 | -$106.98 | 54% 3933-3292 (7225) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 79¢ | $295.11 | $246.42 | +$13.28 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $152.69 | $151.68 | -$1.01 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
PT PT-S7 | Noavg 94¢ | $116.18 | $116.84 | +$0.66 | 46% 3487-4033 (7520) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 95¢ | $116.24 | $105.72 | -$7.52 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
AL AlegrandebigCTR | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $101.42 | $96.8 | -$4.62 | 95% 3987-220 (4207) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $65.11 | $64.67 | -$0.44 | 46% 1997-2348 (4345) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $10 | $9.74 | -$0.26 | 65% 25411-13605 (39016) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $4.35 | $3.63 | +$0.28 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.37 | $0.33 | -$0.04 | 53% 15485-13736 (29221) |
Invested
$3,217.43
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$78.24
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1Invested
$2,850.17
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$39.04
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$304.87
Value
$306.49
PnL
+$1.62
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$389
Value
$282.03
PnL
-$106.98
Record
54%
3933-3292 (7225)
Invested
$295.11
Value
$246.42
PnL
+$13.28
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$152.69
Value
$151.68
PnL
-$1.01
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$116.18
Value
$116.84
PnL
+$0.66
Record
46%
3487-4033 (7520)
Invested
$116.24
Value
$105.72
PnL
-$7.52
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$101.42
Value
$96.8
PnL
-$4.62
Record
95%
3987-220 (4207)
Invested
$65.11
Value
$64.67
PnL
-$0.44
Record
46%
1997-2348 (4345)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.26
Record
65%
25411-13605 (39016)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$3.63
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
15485-13736 (29221)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.