Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-07?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 26¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$265.73

Smart Money Entry

28.1¢ → 25.5¢

-9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares8,977

Combined PnL-$266.19

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.96

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.45

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 29.4¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$237.26	58% 46840-33772 (80612)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 68.2¢	$276.12	$781.57	+$3.79	51% 26028-24687 (50715)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.2¢	$538.67	$588.37	+$54.47
└ No leg	Noavg 28¢	$216.27	$193.2	-$50.68
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 25.4¢	$306.09	$301.81	-$4.28	64% 9984-5568 (15552)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 25.4¢	$280.54	$276.23	-$4.3	64% 10024-5638 (15662)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 26.8¢	$91.33	$86.81	-$4.52	53% 16854-14976 (31830)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$86.5	$86.5	+$1.73	69% 7209-3191 (10400)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 31.3¢	$77.73	$62.09	-$14.4	48% 61419-66265 (127684)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 27.5¢	$16.47	$15	-$1.47	50% 21258-21529 (42787)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$8.09	$7.5	-$0.15	52% 8794-7996 (16790)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 28.4¢	$7.27	$6.41	-$0.74	50% 25943-25631 (51574)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$3.51	$3.96	+$0.45	64% 1975-1105 (3080)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$4.71	$3.68	-$0.81	53% 2589-2285 (4874)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.25	+$0.03	51% 102-99 (201)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,790.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$237.26

Record

58%

46840-33772 (80612)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$276.12

Value

$781.57

PnL

+$3.79

Record

51%

26028-24687 (50715)

Both legs:

Yes$538.6768.2¢+$54.47

No$216.2728¢-$50.68

NM-PCTR

Invested

$306.09

Value

$301.81

PnL

-$4.28

Record

64%

9984-5568 (15552)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$280.54

Value

$276.23

PnL

-$4.3

Record

64%

10024-5638 (15662)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$91.33

Value

$86.81

PnL

-$4.52

Record

53%

16854-14976 (31830)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$86.5

Value

$86.5

PnL

+$1.73

Record

69%

7209-3191 (10400)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$77.73

Value

$62.09

PnL

-$14.4

Record

48%

61419-66265 (127684)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$16.47

Value

$15

PnL

-$1.47

Record

50%

21258-21529 (42787)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

8794-7996 (16790)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.27

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$0.74

Record

50%

25943-25631 (51574)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

1975-1105 (3080)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$4.71

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.81

Record

53%

2589-2285 (4874)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

102-99 (201)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.