Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

SC Paderborn 07 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 47¢ · $55K held · ended Nov 7

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.7K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 46.5¢

-17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$23.6K

Total Shares43,265

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Under8 traders

Total Value$23.4K

Total Shares45,483

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 43.9¢	$18.6K	$23.1K	+$4.5K	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 56.5¢	$6.0K	$6.7K	+$737.96	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 57.8¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$61.77	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.8¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$127.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$189.43
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 56¢	$7.8K	$6.3K	$-1.5K	49% 299-312 (611)
RN1CTR	Underavg 56¢	$5.6K	$4.5K	$-1.1K	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$390.27	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR	Underavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	53% 232-209 (441)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 56.4¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$239.5	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 56.4¢	$1.2K	$792	-$448.5	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 58¢	$668.74	$524.62	-$144.13	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$474.93	$483.8	+$8.87	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.5¢	$287.5	$285	-$2.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.5¢	$187.43	$198.8	+$11.37
SE sentrio	Overavg 43.1¢	$379.1	$478.47	+$99.36	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$369.4	$370.68	+$1.28	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$145.4	$188.68	+$43.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$224	$182	-$42
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 56.9¢	$431.59	$346.46	-$0.58	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.4¢	$146.81	$188.57	+$41.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.9¢	$197.35	$157.89	-$42.27
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 40.4¢	$61.45	$29.08	+$5.82	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 40¢	$283.79	$0.92	-$4.64	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$18,609.58

Value

$23.1K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$5,954.75

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$737.96

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,653.16

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$61.77

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

Under$4,264.6457.8¢+$127.67

Over$2,388.5244¢-$189.43

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$7,781.92

Value

$6.3K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$5,600

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,410

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$390.27

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR

Under

Invested

$1,673.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$1,240.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$239.5

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$1,240.5

Value

$792

PnL

-$448.5

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$668.74

Value

$524.62

PnL

-$144.13

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$474.93

Value

$483.8

PnL

+$8.87

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

Both legs:

Under$287.557.5¢-$2.5

Over$187.4340.5¢+$11.37

sentrio

Over

Invested

$379.1

Value

$478.47

PnL

+$99.36

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$369.4

Value

$370.68

PnL

+$1.28

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

Both legs:

Over$145.442¢+$43.28

Under$22456¢-$42

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$431.59

Value

$346.46

PnL

-$0.58

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Both legs:

Over$146.8142.4¢+$41.69

Under$197.3556.9¢-$42.27

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$61.45

Value

$29.08

PnL

+$5.82

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$283.79

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$4.64

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.