Butler Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Boise State Broncos (46%) · Boise State Broncos at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Butler Bulldogs2¢Boise State Broncos98¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Boise State Broncos

Consensus Traders

Boise State Broncos 46%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$225.73

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 97.8¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBoise State Broncos at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State Broncos

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Butler Bulldogs2%

Boise State Broncos98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Boise State Broncos6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,893

Combined PnL+$309.34

Butler Bulldogs7 traders

Total Value$183.06

Total Shares2,575

Combined PnL-$83.61

Boise State Broncos — 46%Butler Bulldogs — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Boise State Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleButler Bulldogs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrButler Bulldogs 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedButler Bulldogs 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Butler Bulldogs 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Boise State Broncosavg 76.8¢	$991.28	$1.2K	+$207.88	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
RN1	Boise State Broncosavg 90.7¢	$1.1K	$931.91	-$188.51	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Boise State Broncosavg 56¢	$499.54	$762.69	+$263.15	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
38 38791873984189	Boise State Broncosavg 94.7¢	$367.37	$379.66	+$12.29	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
HO HomeRunHazard	Boise State Broncosavg 54.6¢	$197.83	$208.14	+$10.3	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
PA Pan9X	Boise State Broncosavg 91.1¢	$106.92	$111.15	+$4.23	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Butler Bulldogsavg 45.4¢	$80.9	$74.72	-$6.17	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Butler Bulldogsavg 45.6¢	$43.16	$39.32	-$3.84	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Butler Bulldogsavg 3¢	$39.65	$37.03	-$2.62	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Butler Bulldogsavg 10.2¢	$91.68	$18.93	-$72.75	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Butler Bulldogsavg 10.5¢	$6.93	$8.91	+$1.98	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Butler Bulldogsavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.08	-$0.13	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Butler Bulldogsavg 44¢	$2.15	$2.08	-$0.08	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

Flaznorp

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$991.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$207.88

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

RN1

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$1,120.43

Value

$931.91

PnL

-$188.51

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$499.54

Value

$762.69

PnL

+$263.15

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

38791873984189

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$367.37

Value

$379.66

PnL

+$12.29

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

HomeRunHazard

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$197.83

Value

$208.14

PnL

+$10.3

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Pan9X

Boise State Broncos

Invested

$106.92

Value

$111.15

PnL

+$4.23

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Butler Bulldogs

Invested

$80.9

Value

$74.72

PnL

-$6.17

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Butler Bulldogs

Invested

$43.16

Value

$39.32

PnL

-$3.84

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Butler Bulldogs

Invested

$39.65

Value

$37.03

PnL

-$2.62

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Butler Bulldogs

Invested

$91.68

Value

$18.93

PnL

-$72.75

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

LimousinCTR<$100

Butler Bulldogs

Invested

$6.93

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$1.98

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

sentrioCTR<$100

Butler Bulldogs

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Butler Bulldogs

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidBoise State Broncos at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Boise State Broncos

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Boise State Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleButler Bulldogs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrButler Bulldogs 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedButler Bulldogs 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Butler Bulldogs 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Boise State Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.