Green Bay Phoenix vs. St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (64%) · St. Thomas (MN) Tommies at 65¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Green Bay Phoenix35¢St. Thomas (MN) Tommies65¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Consensus Traders

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$138.4

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 65¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Green Bay Phoenix35%

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,365

Combined PnL-$27.91

Green Bay Phoenix4 traders

Total Value$375.87

Total Shares1,062

Combined PnL+$166.31

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies — 64%Green Bay Phoenix — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on St. Thomas (MN) Tommies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGreen Bay Phoenix 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Green Bay Phoenixavg 30.1¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$211.66	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Green Bay Phoenix leg	Green Bay Phoenixavg 30.1¢	$821.96	$968.95	+$146.98
└ St. Thomas (MN) Tommies leg	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 59.8¢	$820.99	$885.66	+$64.67
RN1	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 69.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$39.16	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 72¢	$1.1K	$910.05	-$154.37	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
└ St. Thomas (MN) Tommies leg	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 72¢	$600.54	$546.33	-$54.22
└ Green Bay Phoenix leg	Green Bay Phoenixavg 44¢	$463.88	$363.72	-$100.16
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 78.8¢	$679.15	$662.21	-$16.93	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
0xheavy888	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 75¢	$249.75	$248.09	-$1.67	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ St. Thomas (MN) Tommies leg	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 50¢	$100	$149	+$49
└ Green Bay Phoenix leg	Green Bay Phoenixavg 50¢	$100	$51	-$49
LI LightParadoxCTR	Green Bay Phoenixavg 14¢	$66.72	$169.18	+$102.46	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
38 38791873984189	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 67.5¢	$110	$139.36	+$29.36	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
nigiri99CTR	Green Bay Phoenixavg 24.8¢	$74.33	$106.5	+$32.17	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Green Bay Phoenixavg 24¢	$66	$97.63	+$31.63	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
PA Pan9X<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 77¢	$8.36	$8.2	-$0.17	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.98	+$0.68	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
SE sentrio<$100	St. Thomas (MN) Tommiesavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.73	-$0.03	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Green Bay Phoenixavg 25¢	$10.05	$2.56	+$0.05	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$1,642.95

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$211.66

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Green Bay Phoenix$821.9630.1¢+$146.98

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies$820.9959.8¢+$64.67

RN1

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$1,095.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$39.16

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

SnakeBallARB<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$1,064.42

Value

$910.05

PnL

-$154.37

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Both legs:

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies$600.5472¢-$54.22

Green Bay Phoenix$463.8844¢-$100.16

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$679.15

Value

$662.21

PnL

-$16.93

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

0xheavy888

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$249.75

Value

$248.09

PnL

-$1.67

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies$10050¢+$49

Green Bay Phoenix$10050¢-$49

LightParadoxCTR

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$66.72

Value

$169.18

PnL

+$102.46

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

38791873984189

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$110

Value

$139.36

PnL

+$29.36

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

nigiri99CTR

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$74.33

Value

$106.5

PnL

+$32.17

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

VenusianCTR<$100

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$66

Value

$97.63

PnL

+$31.63

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Pan9X<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$8.36

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.68

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

sentrio<$100

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Green Bay Phoenix

Invested

$10.05

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

AvoidSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on St. Thomas (MN) Tommies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGreen Bay Phoenix 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSt. Thomas (MN) Tommies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that St. Thomas (MN) Tommies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.