Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-25.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State Buckeyes (91%) · Ohio State Buckeyes at 55¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Ohio State Buckeyes55¢Marshall Thundering Herd45¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio State Buckeyes

Consensus Traders

Ohio State Buckeyes 91%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$63.44

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 54.5¢

+15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio State Buckeyes at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State Buckeyes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State Buckeyes55%

Marshall Thundering Herd46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marshall Thundering Herd1 trader

Total Value$406.25

Total Shares893

Combined PnL-$71.4

Ohio State Buckeyes10 traders

Total Value$794

Total Shares1,644

Combined PnL+$7.96

Marshall Thundering Herd — 9%Ohio State Buckeyes — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$36.98	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Marshall Thundering Herd leg	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$16.15
└ Ohio State Buckeyes leg	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 48.5¢	$986.49	$965.66	-$20.84
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 53.5¢	$477.65	$406.25	-$71.4	48% 13-14 (27)
FL Flaznorp	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 48¢	$269.71	$272.57	+$2.86	52% 242-224 (466)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 46.7¢	$254.3	$252.54	+$3.86	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Ohio State Buckeyes leg	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 46.7¢	$173.06	$175.89	+$2.97
└ Marshall Thundering Herd leg	Marshall Thundering Herdavg 51.9¢	$75.76	$76.65	+$0.89
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	52% 190-176 (366)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 50¢	$450	$97	-$3	100% 28-0 (28)
RN1<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 45.8¢	$68.96	$71.47	+$2.51	54% 233-201 (434)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 45.8¢	$46.68	$40.7	+$1.69	48% 173-188 (361)
0xheavy888<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 48¢	$32.64	$32.98	+$0.34	69% 29-13 (42)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 46¢	$30.77	$31.78	+$1	30% 105-246 (351)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 48.7¢	$7.3	$7.13	-$0.18	18% 42-190 (232)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 42¢	$2.18	$2.38	+$0.21	20% 37-151 (188)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Ohio State Buckeyesavg 46¢	$1.04	$0.51	+$0.03	10% 11-104 (115)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$2,568.27

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$36.98

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Marshall Thundering Herd$1,581.7852¢-$16.15

Ohio State Buckeyes$986.4948.5¢-$20.84

glennyorkshireCTR

Marshall Thundering Herd

Invested

$477.65

Value

$406.25

PnL

-$71.4

Record

48%

13-14 (27)

Flaznorp

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$269.71

Value

$272.57

PnL

+$2.86

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$254.3

Value

$252.54

PnL

+$3.86

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Ohio State Buckeyes$173.0646.7¢+$2.97

Marshall Thundering Herd$75.7651.9¢+$0.89

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$450

Value

$97

PnL

-$3

Record

100%

28-0 (28)

RN1<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$68.96

Value

$71.47

PnL

+$2.51

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Pan9X<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$46.68

Value

$40.7

PnL

+$1.69

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

0xheavy888<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$32.64

Value

$32.98

PnL

+$0.34

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$30.77

Value

$31.78

PnL

+$1

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.18

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.21

Record

20%

37-151 (188)

BoomLaLa<$100

Ohio State Buckeyes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.03

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

Research grade

AvoidOhio State Buckeyes at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State Buckeyes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State Buckeyes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.