Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-15.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Vanderbilt Commodores (82%) · Vanderbilt Commodores at 66¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Vanderbilt Commodores66¢Memphis Tigers34¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Vanderbilt Commodores

Consensus Traders

Vanderbilt Commodores 82%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$173.31

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 66¢

-8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidVanderbilt Commodores at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt Commodores

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vanderbilt Commodores66%

Memphis Tigers34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vanderbilt Commodores9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,556

Combined PnL-$212.02

Memphis Tigers2 traders

Total Value$460.25

Total Shares1,547

Combined PnL+$38.71

Vanderbilt Commodores — 82%Memphis Tigers — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Vanderbilt Commodores. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVanderbilt Commodores 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedVanderbilt Commodores 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vanderbilt Commodores 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 90¢	$907.45	$661.46	-$245.99	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Memphis Tigersavg 25.6¢	$369.03	$410.89	+$41.86	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 47¢	$235	$265	+$30	56% 488-383 (871)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Memphis Tigersavg 50¢	$52.51	$49.36	-$3.15	3% 7-227 (234)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 47¢	$29.47	$31.59	+$2.12	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 39¢	$18.33	$24.91	+$6.58	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
RN1<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 40¢	$6.61	$8.76	+$2.15	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 50.3¢	$7.55	$7.95	+$0.4	26% 181-519 (700)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 44¢	$2.64	$3.18	+$0.54	49% 444-470 (914)
0xheavy888<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.66	+$0.3	55% 120-97 (217)
VeryLucky888<$100	Vanderbilt Commodoresavg 49.8¢	$62.25	$2.02	-$8.12	51% 300-292 (592)

takeormake

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$907.45

Value

$661.46

PnL

-$245.99

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

FlaznorpCTR

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$369.03

Value

$410.89

PnL

+$41.86

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$235

Value

$265

PnL

+$30

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Memphis Tigers

Invested

$52.51

Value

$49.36

PnL

-$3.15

Record

7-227 (234)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$29.47

Value

$31.59

PnL

+$2.12

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$18.33

Value

$24.91

PnL

+$6.58

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

RN1<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$6.61

Value

$8.76

PnL

+$2.15

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

ameisgoat11<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$7.55

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$0.4

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Pan9X<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$2.64

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

0xheavy888<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

VeryLucky888<$100

Vanderbilt Commodores

Invested

$62.25

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$8.12

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

Research grade

AvoidVanderbilt Commodores at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt Commodores

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Vanderbilt Commodores. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVanderbilt Commodores 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedVanderbilt Commodores 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vanderbilt Commodores 78% · 9

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vanderbilt Commodores wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.