Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Saint Mary's Gaels, while the market favors Nevada Wolf Pack (61%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Mary's Gaels (54%) · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Saint Marys Gaels39¢Nevada Wolf Pack61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

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Contrarian

Saint Mary's Gaels

Consensus Traders

Saint Mary's Gaels 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$684.17

Smart Money Signal

Saint Mary's Gaels

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Nevada Wolf Pack 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Saint Marys Gaels39%

Nevada Wolf Pack61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Mary's Gaels7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,700

Combined PnL+$951.97

Nevada Wolf Pack5 traders

Total Value$988.1

Total Shares1,454

Combined PnL-$265.14

Saint Marys Gaels1 trader

Total Value$50.41

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$2.65

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 51.9¢	$606.46	$785.51	+$179.05	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
└ Nevada Wolf Pack leg	Nevada Wolf Packavg 51.9¢	$471.4	$573.62	+$102.22
└ Saint Mary's Gaels leg	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 23.5¢	$135.06	$211.89	+$76.83
LI Limousin	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 6.5¢	$102.63	$693.81	+$591.18	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
VE Venusian	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 15.9¢	$221.74	$612.7	+$390.96	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
RN1	Nevada Wolf Packavg 94.3¢	$677.4	$514.24	-$163.17	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
LI LightParadox	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 24.1¢	$254.2	$307.49	+$53.3	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
CI cigarettes	Nevada Wolf Packavg 92.2¢	$393.51	$281.33	-$112.18	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
0xheavy888	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 46.1¢	$320.76	$205.32	-$115.44	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
MA MadridTime	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 14.8¢	$107.98	$192.96	+$84.98	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
38 38791873984189<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 46.8¢	$47.83	$79.76	+$31.93	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
nigiri99<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 52¢	$72.8	$73.5	+$0.7	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 45.2¢	$107.31	$53.39	-$53.92	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100	Saint Marys Gaelsavg 50¢	$53.06	$50.41	-$2.65	48% 598-655 (1253)
PA Pan9X<$100	Nevada Wolf Packavg 77.6¢	$78.33	$39.27	-$22.44	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Saint Mary's Gaelsavg 13.9¢	$0.83	$1.74	+$0.91	54% 3881-3249 (7130)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$606.46

Value

$785.51

PnL

+$179.05

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

Both legs:

Nevada Wolf Pack$471.451.9¢+$102.22

Saint Mary's Gaels$135.0623.5¢+$76.83

Limousin

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$102.63

Value

$693.81

PnL

+$591.18

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

Venusian

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$221.74

Value

$612.7

PnL

+$390.96

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

RN1

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$677.4

Value

$514.24

PnL

-$163.17

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

LightParadox

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$254.2

Value

$307.49

PnL

+$53.3

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

cigarettes

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$393.51

Value

$281.33

PnL

-$112.18

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

0xheavy888

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$320.76

Value

$205.32

PnL

-$115.44

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

MadridTime

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$107.98

Value

$192.96

PnL

+$84.98

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

38791873984189<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$47.83

Value

$79.76

PnL

+$31.93

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

nigiri99<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$72.8

Value

$73.5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$107.31

Value

$53.39

PnL

-$53.92

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100

Saint Marys Gaels

Invested

$53.06

Value

$50.41

PnL

-$2.65

Record

48%

598-655 (1253)

Pan9X<$100

Nevada Wolf Pack

Invested

$78.33

Value

$39.27

PnL

-$22.44

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Saint Mary's Gaels

Invested

$0.83

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.91

Record

54%

3881-3249 (7130)

Smart Money Signal

Saint Mary's Gaels

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Nevada Wolf Pack 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Marys Gaels wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.3%

39.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.