Will Real Jaén CF win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$47.22

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 68.5¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,486

Combined PnL+$143.21

No4 traders

Total Value$194.62

Total Shares598

Combined PnL-$96

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 51.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$81.27	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.3¢	$794.85	$1.0K	+$212.6
└ No leg	Noavg 48¢	$484.85	$353.53	-$131.32
VE Venusian	Yesavg 51¢	$802.76	$929.71	+$126.96	25% 219-662 (881)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 52.2¢	$127.24	$146.42	+$19.19	31% 171-389 (560)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$56.32	$62.41	+$6.09	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$21.48	$31.99	+$10.51
└ No leg	Noavg 36.1¢	$34.83	$30.41	-$4.42
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 47.2¢	$144.56	$61.83	-$24.25	50% 240-242 (482)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$86.4	$55.8	-$30.6	53% 5388-4864 (10252)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$73.55	$46.66	-$26.89	25% 219-662 (881)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$42.54	$42.54	+$0	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$44.58	$30.33	-$14.25	25% 221-650 (871)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$33.06	$30.13	-$2.93	44% 79-102 (181)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,279.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$81.27

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

Both legs:

Yes$794.8551.3¢+$212.6

No$484.8548¢-$131.32

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$802.76

Value

$929.71

PnL

+$126.96

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$127.24

Value

$146.42

PnL

+$19.19

Record

31%

171-389 (560)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$56.32

Value

$62.41

PnL

+$6.09

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

Both legs:

Yes$21.4846¢+$10.51

No$34.8336.1¢-$4.42

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$144.56

Value

$61.83

PnL

-$24.25

Record

50%

240-242 (482)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$86.4

Value

$55.8

PnL

-$30.6

Record

53%

5388-4864 (10252)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$73.55

Value

$46.66

PnL

-$26.89

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.54

Value

$42.54

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$44.58

Value

$30.33

PnL

-$14.25

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.06

Value

$30.13

PnL

-$2.93

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.