Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Buffalo, while the market favors Ball State (68%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Buffalo (-2.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (67%) · Buffalo at 33¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Buffalo33¢Ball State67¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$65.62

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 32.5¢

-32% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Ball State 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buffalo33%

Ball State68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,857

Combined PnL-$103.83

Ball State4 traders

Total Value$446.72

Total Shares801

Combined PnL+$38.21

Buffalo — 67%Ball State — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuffalo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Buffalo 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PARB<$100	Ball Stateavg 54¢	$550.4	$536.44	-$13.96	20% 99-384 (483)
└ Ball State leg	Ball Stateavg 54¢	$378	$371	-$7
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 49¢	$172.4	$165.44	-$6.96
NM NM-PARB<$100	Ball Stateavg 54¢	$455	$442.75	-$12.25	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
└ Ball State leg	Ball Stateavg 54¢	$283.5	$278.25	-$5.25
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 49¢	$171.5	$164.5	-$7
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Buffaloavg 49¢	$476.8	$438.57	-$38.23	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Ball Stateavg 50.1¢	$358.42	$386.1	+$27.68	48% 536-588 (1124)
VeryLucky888CTR	Buffaloavg 47.9¢	$1.0K	$335.64	-$32.87	52% 497-452 (949)
38 38791873984189CTR	Buffaloavg 47¢	$333.7	$253.17	+$11.59	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Buffaloavg 49¢	$213.43	$196.01	-$17.42	47% 299-342 (641)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Buffaloavg 46¢	$92	$65	-$27	18% 15-67 (82)
PR primm<$100	Ball Stateavg 58¢	$32.48	$40.32	+$7.84	61% 870-566 (1436)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ball Stateavg 51¢	$24.21	$13.61	+$2.63	49% 692-733 (1425)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Buffaloavg 49¢	$7.59	$7.74	+$0.16	55% 680-552 (1232)
RN1<$100	Ball Stateavg 51¢	$6.63	$6.7	+$0.07	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Buffaloavg 35¢	$3.5	$3.4	-$0.1	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Buffaloavg 41¢	$1.51	$1.54	+$0.04	55% 719-584 (1303)

GC-PARB<$100

Ball State

Invested

$550.4

Value

$536.44

PnL

-$13.96

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Both legs:

Ball State$37854¢-$7

Buffalo$172.449¢-$6.96

NM-PARB<$100

Ball State

Invested

$455

Value

$442.75

PnL

-$12.25

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Both legs:

Ball State$283.554¢-$5.25

Buffalo$171.549¢-$7

HomeRunHazardCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$476.8

Value

$438.57

PnL

-$38.23

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Multicoloured-Serf

Ball State

Invested

$358.42

Value

$386.1

PnL

+$27.68

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

VeryLucky888CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$1,010.22

Value

$335.64

PnL

-$32.87

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

38791873984189CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$333.7

Value

$253.17

PnL

+$11.59

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

SnakeBallCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$213.43

Value

$196.01

PnL

-$17.42

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$92

Value

$65

PnL

-$27

Record

18%

15-67 (82)

primm<$100

Ball State

Invested

$32.48

Value

$40.32

PnL

+$7.84

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

Pan9X<$100

Ball State

Invested

$24.21

Value

$13.61

PnL

+$2.63

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

RN1<$100

Ball State

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Ball State 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuffalo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Buffalo 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.