Kent State vs. Bowling Green

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (58%) · Bowling Green at 63¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 11

Kent State38¢Bowling Green62¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bowling Green

Consensus Traders

Bowling Green 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.1K

Combined PnL

$98.06

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 62.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kent State38%

Bowling Green63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bowling Green7 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares28,330

Combined PnL-$261.44

Kent State5 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares32,684

Combined PnL+$359.5

Bowling Green — 58%Kent State — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kent State) and the top 1000 (7 on Bowling Green) disagree here.

ctrBowling Green 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Bowling Greenavg 65¢	$9.3K	$9.1K	-$214.29	61% 855-553 (1408)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 64¢	$10.5K	$9.0K	-$3.64	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 64¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$162.61
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 34.8¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$158.97
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kent Stateavg 36¢	$8.4K	$8.8K	+$351.44	54% 1644-1413 (3057)
65 6512395314597884	Bowling Greenavg 63.8¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$30.36	51% 3171-3070 (6241)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kent Stateavg 35¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0	50% 260-256 (516)
38 38791873984189	Bowling Greenavg 64¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$19.33	48% 937-1010 (1947)
nigiri99CTR	Kent Stateavg 37¢	$582.01	$589.88	+$7.87	52% 126-118 (244)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Kent Stateavg 35¢	$118.56	$118.56	+$0	47% 149-168 (317)
PA Pan9X	Bowling Greenavg 63¢	$155.3	$103.91	+$2.61	49% 438-463 (901)
RL RLWG<$100	Bowling Greenavg 64¢	$44.8	$45.15	+$0.35	68% 1592-743 (2335)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bowling Greenavg 64.3¢	$35.83	$35.41	-$0.42	53% 346-302 (648)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Bowling Greenavg 65¢	$14.77	$14.77	-$0	61% 898-576 (1474)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 36¢	$13.95	$14.14	+$0.19	10% 83-781 (864)

primm

Bowling Green

Invested

$9,285.71

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$214.29

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$10,494.64

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$3.64

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$6,938.0164¢-$162.61

Kent State$2,072.6434.8¢+$158.97

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kent State

Invested

$8,434.55

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$351.44

Record

54%

1644-1413 (3057)

6512395314597884

Bowling Green

Invested

$6,280.12

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$30.36

Record

51%

3171-3070 (6241)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kent State

Invested

$2,556.38

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

260-256 (516)

38791873984189

Bowling Green

Invested

$2,498.14

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$19.33

Record

48%

937-1010 (1947)

nigiri99CTR

Kent State

Invested

$582.01

Value

$589.88

PnL

+$7.87

Record

52%

126-118 (244)

SnakeBallCTR

Kent State

Invested

$118.56

Value

$118.56

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

Pan9X

Bowling Green

Invested

$155.3

Value

$103.91

PnL

+$2.61

Record

49%

438-463 (901)

RLWG<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$44.8

Value

$45.15

PnL

+$0.35

Record

68%

1592-743 (2335)

ghorrock<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$35.83

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

346-302 (648)

darkumbreon88<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$14.77

Value

$14.77

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

898-576 (1474)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$13.95

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$0.19

Record

10%

83-781 (864)

Research grade

NeutralBowling Green at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kent State) and the top 1000 (7 on Bowling Green) disagree here.

ctrBowling Green 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKent State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bowling Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.