Spread: Bowling Green (-5.5)
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (92%) · Kent State at 51¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Kent State
12
Kent State 92%
$12.3K
-$70.47
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralKent State at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $5.2K | $5.1K | -$46.59 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
HI hi774c | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$34.93 | 8% 37-420 (457) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.12 | 54% 1625-1379 (3004) |
38 38791873984189 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$10.19 | 48% 859-937 (1796) |
 nigiri99 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $620 | $626.2 | +$6.2 | 52% 125-115 (240) |
 VeryLucky888 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $913.78 | $495 | +$3.44 | 49% 231-239 (470) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $191.67 | $191.67 | +$0 | 51% 3674-3500 (7174) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 50¢ | $65 | $64.35 | -$0.65 | 68% 1591-741 (2332) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $39.86 | $40.26 | +$0.4 | 25% 214-643 (857) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $13.1 | $12.97 | -$0.13 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $7.5 | $7.43 | -$0.08 | 48% 421-450 (871) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Kent Stateavg 50¢ | $6.72 | $6.65 | -$0.07 | 53% 323-288 (611) |
Invested
$5,160.48
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$46.59
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$3,493
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$34.93
Record
8%
37-420 (457)
Invested
$1,211.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.12
Record
54%
1625-1379 (3004)
Invested
$1,023.9
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$10.19
Record
48%
859-937 (1796)
nigiri99Invested
$620
Value
$626.2
PnL
+$6.2
Record
52%
125-115 (240)
VeryLucky888Invested
$913.78
Value
$495
PnL
+$3.44
Record
49%
231-239 (470)
Invested
$191.67
Value
$191.67
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3674-3500 (7174)
Invested
$65
Value
$64.35
PnL
-$0.65
Record
68%
1591-741 (2332)
Invested
$39.86
Value
$40.26
PnL
+$0.4
Record
25%
214-643 (857)
Invested
$13.1
Value
$12.97
PnL
-$0.13
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.43
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
421-450 (871)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$6.65
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
323-288 (611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
Kent State — $5.1K
hi774c
Kent State — $3.5K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Kent State — $1.2K
38791873984189
Kent State — $1.0K
nigiri99
Kent State — $626.2
VeryLucky888
Kent State — $495
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Kent State — $191.67
RLWG
CTRBowling Green — $64.35
LightParadox
Kent State — $40.26
sentrio
Kent State — $12.97