Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 43.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 61¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 11

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$408.99

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 61¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares16,418

Combined PnL+$526.97

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares16,204

Combined PnL-$117.98

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 62¢	$8.8K	$9.3K	+$491.38	61% 855-553 (1408)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 39¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$33.57	70% 1655-702 (2357)
VI vibing123	Overavg 63¢	$983.49	$1.0K	+$23.42	63% 1078-642 (1720)
RN1CTR	Underavg 39¢	$969.93	$932.63	-$37.31	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 36.7¢	$954.15	$890.8	-$63.35	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 36¢	$874.44	$887.29	+$12.85	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 61¢	$675	$497.51	+$12.17	48% 949-1019 (1968)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Underavg 36¢	$396	$401.5	+$5.5	62% 2352-1445 (3797)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 37¢	$184.99	$187.49	+$2.5	56% 488-383 (871)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 38¢	$169.46	$171.69	+$2.23	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Underavg 36¢	$100.8	$93.8	-$7	62% 1003-623 (1626)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 38¢	$68.71	$57.61	-$3.53	49% 444-470 (914)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$35.14	$31.01	-$4.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$25.6	$26.6	+$1
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$12.29	$12.46	+$0.16	48% 190-206 (396)

primm

Over

Invested

$8,798.79

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$491.38

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$2,618.85

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$33.57

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$983.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.42

Record

63%

1078-642 (1720)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$969.93

Value

$932.63

PnL

-$37.31

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$954.15

Value

$890.8

PnL

-$63.35

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$874.44

Value

$887.29

PnL

+$12.85

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$675

Value

$497.51

PnL

+$12.17

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Under

Invested

$396

Value

$401.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

62%

2352-1445 (3797)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$184.99

Value

$187.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$169.46

Value

$171.69

PnL

+$2.23

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Under

Invested

$100.8

Value

$93.8

PnL

-$7

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$68.71

Value

$57.61

PnL

-$3.53

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Both legs:

Invested

$12.29

Value

$12.46

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.