Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texas Tech, while the market favors West Virginia (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Texas Tech (-16.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (54%) · Texas Tech at 0.4¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Texas Tech<1¢West Virginia>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 54%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas Tech at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors West Virginia 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas Tech0%

West Virginia100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Virginia6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,832

Combined PnL+$393.92

Texas Tech7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,053

Combined PnL$-1.7K

West Virginia — 46%Texas Tech — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	West Virginiaavg 42¢	$509.88	$952.99	+$443.11	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
RN1CTR	Texas Techavg 58¢	$1.2K	$830.06	-$373.53	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
JU justaluckydude	West Virginiaavg 57¢	$817.38	$595.11	-$222.27	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
VI vibing123	West Virginiaavg 43¢	$208.55	$380.73	+$172.18	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texas Techavg 51.7¢	$699.92	$287.53	-$388.42	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	West Virginiaavg 51.7¢	$232.05	$230.93	-$1.12	47% 535-611 (1146)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Texas Techavg 53.6¢	$454.69	$199.47	-$255.22	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
HO HomeRunHazard	West Virginiaavg 50¢	$149.67	$151.68	+$2.01	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
VeryLucky888CTR	Texas Techavg 51.1¢	$159.32	$127.07	-$5.75	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Texas Techavg 43.4¢	$468.77	$102.65	-$366.12	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texas Techavg 53.9¢	$34.11	$23.58	-$0.87	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Texas Techavg 57¢	$293.08	$11.92	-$281.16	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	West Virginiaavg 51¢	$1.25	$1.27	+$0.01	48% 405-446 (851)

primm

West Virginia

Invested

$509.88

Value

$952.99

PnL

+$443.11

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

RN1CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$1,203.58

Value

$830.06

PnL

-$373.53

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

justaluckydude

West Virginia

Invested

$817.38

Value

$595.11

PnL

-$222.27

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

vibing123

West Virginia

Invested

$208.55

Value

$380.73

PnL

+$172.18

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

38791873984189CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$699.92

Value

$287.53

PnL

-$388.42

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

West Virginia

Invested

$232.05

Value

$230.93

PnL

-$1.12

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

6512395314597884CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$454.69

Value

$199.47

PnL

-$255.22

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

HomeRunHazard

West Virginia

Invested

$149.67

Value

$151.68

PnL

+$2.01

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

VeryLucky888CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$159.32

Value

$127.07

PnL

-$5.75

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$468.77

Value

$102.65

PnL

-$366.12

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$34.11

Value

$23.58

PnL

-$0.87

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Texas Tech

Invested

$293.08

Value

$11.92

PnL

-$281.16

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Research grade

AvoidTexas Tech at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors West Virginia 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.