Will Qairat FK win on 2026-11-05?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 96¢ · $973 held · ends Nov 5

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$972.61

Combined PnL

$7.83

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 96.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$950.92

Total Shares973

Combined PnL+$8.03

Yes3 traders

Total Value$21.69

Total Shares600

Combined PnL-$0.2

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 96.8¢	$319.32	$319.77	+$0.45	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 94.8¢	$294.67	$217.2	+$3.65	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94¢	$203.72	$210	+$1.41	51% 37655-36884 (74539)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$55.27	$55.98	+$0.71	53% 16795-14918 (31713)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$36.08	$36.73	+$0.64	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$35.78	$36.42	+$0.64	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$28.33	$29.07	+$0.74	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$20.68	$20.65	-$0.03	50% 21147-21407 (42554)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$15.66	$15.1	-$0.56	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95¢	$14.26	$14.55	+$0.29	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$5.78	$6.12	+$0.34	50% 28405-28303 (56708)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$6.29	$5.72	-$0.56	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$5	$4.84	+$0.1	49% 3325-3526 (6851)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$0.45	$0.48	+$0.02	47% 11682-13378 (25060)

MadridTime

Invested

$319.32

Value

$319.77

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

38791873984189

Invested

$294.67

Value

$217.2

PnL

+$3.65

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

SnakeBall

Invested

$203.72

Value

$210

PnL

+$1.41

Record

51%

37655-36884 (74539)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$55.27

Value

$55.98

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$36.08

Value

$36.73

PnL

+$0.64

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$35.78

Value

$36.42

PnL

+$0.64

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$28.33

Value

$29.07

PnL

+$0.74

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$20.65

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.66

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$0.56

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$14.26

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.78

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

28405-28303 (56708)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.29

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

3325-3526 (6851)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

11682-13378 (25060)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.