Will K. Sint-Truidense VV vs. SK Brann end in a draw?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 80¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 5

Yes80¢No20¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$10.57

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 80¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,781

Combined PnL+$182.81

No7 traders

Total Value$309.91

Total Shares1,086

Combined PnL-$172.24

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 74.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$51.06	52% 1380-1295 (2675)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 43.1¢	$875.36	$1.0K	+$132	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 33.5¢	$235.37	$158.09	-$77.28	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 60.2¢	$135.47	$131.63	-$3.85	50% 1329-1304 (2633)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 83¢	$101.87	$95.98	-$5.89	46% 1540-1814 (3354)
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$69.13	$67.88	-$1.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.6¢	$32.74	$28.1	-$4.64
PA Pan9XCTR	Noavg 67.3¢	$201.9	$50.9	-$110.28	54% 9740-8132 (17872)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 36.9¢	$26.35	$48.44	+$22.09	52% 14498-13182 (27680)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$31.78	$27.27	-$4.51	50% 21182-21443 (42625)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$10.4	$15	+$4.61	44% 80-103 (183)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 79¢	$14.86	$12.88	-$1.98	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$9.08	$9.21	+$0.13	61% 14367-9292 (23659)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$7.79	$7.7	-$0.09	53% 1430-1268 (2698)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$3.52	$3.12	-$0.4	43% 2441-3299 (5740)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$1.8	$0.88	-$0.93	82% 7330-1615 (8945)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$1,050.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$51.06

Record

52%

1380-1295 (2675)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$875.36

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$132

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$235.37

Value

$158.09

PnL

-$77.28

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$135.47

Value

$131.63

PnL

-$3.85

Record

50%

1329-1304 (2633)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$101.87

Value

$95.98

PnL

-$5.89

Record

46%

1540-1814 (3354)

Both legs:

No$69.1383¢-$1.25

Yes$32.7421.6¢-$4.64

Pan9XCTR

Invested

$201.9

Value

$50.9

PnL

-$110.28

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$26.35

Value

$48.44

PnL

+$22.09

Record

52%

14498-13182 (27680)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$31.78

Value

$27.27

PnL

-$4.51

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.61

Record

44%

80-103 (183)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$14.86

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$1.98

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$9.08

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$0.13

Record

61%

14367-9292 (23659)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

1430-1268 (2698)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0.4

Record

43%

2441-3299 (5740)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.93

Record

82%

7330-1615 (8945)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.